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Forecast

April 6, 2018/report

April 6, 2018

Summary: The atmospheric river of air we’ve been discussing has arrived over northern California where widespread precipitation is occurring from roughly Monterey and Merced Counties northward.  Precipitation will slowly spread south along the Sierra Nevada today as a 130 knot jet stream moves from west to east across central California, causing big time lift to the atmosphere along the Sierras.  Large amounts of rain are still anticipated there, mainly from Kings Canyon north.  In the meantime, that same jet stream will cause descending air on the lee side of the Coast Range, zapping precipitation amounts along the west side of the valley and over the south end of the valley where the weaker sector of the storm will be flowing, anyway.

 

Rainfall along the east side of the valley will depend on how far east the rain shadow progresses.  The bottom line is, this storm will be a big event over the mountains and perhaps just so-so over much of the San Joaquin Valley.

 

The cold frontal portion of the storm will move through Saturday morning with precipitation turning showery during the afternoon, ending by later Saturday evening sometime.  The front will move east of the Sierra Nevada later Saturday night, ending any additional precipitation chances there.

 

A flat zone of upper level high pressure will develop along the central and southern California coasts Monday through Friday with a westerly component in the upper atmosphere.  Two weather systems will move inland to our north next week.  One will move through about Tuesday night.  Latest models indicate it will be too far to the north for precipitation in our neck of the woods.  Another fast moving low will spread showers over northern California Thursday and Thursday night, possibly affecting central California, but for now there are too  many model discrepancies to add rain to our forecast.

 

Forecast: A chance of showers this  morning, mainly from Fresno County northward.  Showers this afternoon, mainly north of Kern County.  Periods of rain tonight through Saturday morning, possibly locally heavy at times in Madera County and eastern Fresno County.  Showers Saturday afternoon and evening, becoming mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday night.  Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Mostly clear Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday night through Thursday night from Fresno County northward.  Partly cloudy Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 70/58/72/44/74 Reedley 72/59/74/45/74 Dinuba 70/57/73/44/73
Porterville 74/59/74/45/75 Lindsay 74/58/75/44/74 Delano 75/60/75/47/74
Bakersfield 77/61/74/47/73 Arvin 77/60/76/48/74 Taft 76/62/75/48/73
Lamont 75/60/75/47/73 Pixley 74/59/75/45/74 Tulare 72/58/75/44/75
Woodlake 72/59/74/46/73 Hanford 72/59/75/46/74 Orosi 72/57/75/44/75

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

47/78

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

51/83

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

52/80

Thursday

Mostly cloudy

50/74

Friday

Partly cloudy

43/73

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 12 through April 18:  This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation.  It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today and tonight, becoming out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts by late Saturday morning and through the evening hours.  Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain:  Rain has spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line with widespread precipitation over northern California.  This is all due to the arrival of the atmospheric river of air which will slowly spread southward later this afternoon and tonight.  Trying to discern potential rain totals from this storm will be very challenging as latest model projections show a strong jet stream right above central California.  This will create a rain shadow over the west side and over much of the south valley.  Madera County and eastern Fresno County will have the best chance of picking up significant totals.  Those totals could approach an inch, although even that is speculative as it depends on how far to the east the rain shadow progresses.

 

The Sierra Nevada is still on schedule for several inches of rain, mainly from Kings Canyon north with the heaviest amounts over the central and northern Sierra.

 

As far as today is concerned, there will be a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward this morning with an increasing chance of showers this afternoon elsewhere.  Periods of rain can be expected from tonight through Saturday morning with showers Saturday afternoon and evening.  Dry weather will return Saturday night and will continue through at least Wednesday night.  Models are showing a minimal chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night.  For now, it looks like dry weather will return thereafter.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 55%/95%  Bakersfield: 35%/80%

Actual Humidity April 4, 2018: Delano, 80%/22%, Porterville, 94%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%  tomorrow 0%  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 4, 2018: Stratford 1.42, Parlier 1.20, Blackwell 1.31 Lindcove 1.15, Arvin 1.34, Orange Cove 1.25, Porterville 1.19, Delano 1.22, Madera Two 1.13.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 66, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 62

 

Record Temperatures: 92/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 14 +10 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 66.0 +8.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.80.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.73, or -1.94,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:37 am  Sunset: 7:26 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  74 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  77 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  79 /  54 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  81 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  78 /  54 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  76 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  81 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1658 /  78 /  56 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  55 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall Totals:

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.37    59   19.82   160    12.39    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    5.78    51   15.30   135    11.31    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.66    53   14.64   136    10.73    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.51    63   13.70   133    10.28    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.09    61   13.66   138     9.93    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.41    51    9.62   111     8.66    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.73    65    7.41   130     5.70     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.82    20    7.89   192     4.11     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.29    46   15.52   135    11.48    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.42    81   15.01   129    11.67    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    5.60    44   16.92   134    12.67    13.95
 

Next Report: Saturday, April 7