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Forecast

April 10, 2018/report

April 10, 2018

Summary: Upper level high pressure is still over central and southern California even though it is moving eastward.  The freezing level overnight at VAFB was 13,300 feet, indicating plenty of warm air aloft.  To our north, a low pressure system is moving into the Pacific Northwest and will drag a dry cold front through here this evening with variable amounts of mid and high level clouds, but little else.

 

On Wednesday night and early Thursday, a stronger low will move into northern and central California.  This system is considerably colder and will drive temperatures to below average values as early as Thursday.  Right behind the frontal system itself will be a northwest to southeast oriented jet stream.  This, combined with falling pressure over the interior west, will set the stage for gusty northwesterly winds down the valley Wednesday night and Thursday before matters calm down later Thursday night and Friday.  Even though there won’t be a strong moisture field associated with this system, there will be a chance of light showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, especially north of Kern County.  However, a few light showers cannot be ruled out even in Kern County.

 

Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Thursday afternoon with high pressure dominating our pattern Friday through Sunday for dry weather and another warming trend.  The active pattern, considering it’s April, will begin anew early next week as a new low will  move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a rapidly moving cold front moving through central California for a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward,  Monday and Monday night.  Medium range models are actually pointing to another possible system affecting primarily the northern part of the state about Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

 

Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today.  Variable cloudiness tonight through Wednesday.  A chance of light showers Wednesday night and early Thursday.  Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night.  Becoming  mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward.  Partly cloudy Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 86/52/74/43/65 Reedley 87/53/77/45/66 Dinuba 85/52/75/43/65
Porterville 87/51/76/43/65 Lindsay 87/52/75/43/65 Delano 88/53/77/46/66
Bakersfield 89/56/77/49/65 Arvin 90/54/77/47/63 Taft 89/57/77/50/65
Lamont 88/54/77/48/64 Pixley 87/53/77/43/66 Tulare 86/51/75/42/65
Woodlake 86/53/75/43/65 Hanford 87/53/75/44/66 Orosi 86/51/76/44/66

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

39/68

Saturday

Mostly clear

44/79

Sunday

Mostly clear

52/82

Monday

Slight chance of showers

46/69

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

43/69

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 16 through April 22:  This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation.  It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: winds will be generally less than 12 MPH today.  Winds late tonight and Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday.  Winds will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH Thursday night with light winds returning Friday and on through the weekend.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Wednesday.  A rapidly moving cold front will move through central California Wednesday night and Thursday.  Latest models give this system stronger upper air support than previous model runs, increasing the chance of light showers, especially north of Kern County, Wednesday night and early Thursday.  Precipitation amounts, even in Fresno and Madera Counties, will generally be less than a tenth of an inch with some locations, mainly on the west side and in the south, possibly recording no rain.  Dry weather will return Thursday and continue through at least Sunday night.  Another fast moving cold front will  move through central California about Monday and Monday night.  On paper, this system will take a more northerly course, but I do believe there’s a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward.  Tuesday and Wednesday appear dry, but models are showing another possible fast moving system affecting our region about Thursday of next week.  For now, I’ll go with a dry forecast for that time frame while watching for trends to develop.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90%  Bakersfield: 20%/80%

Actual Humidity April 8, 2018: Delano, 89%/45%, Porterville, 97%/48%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%  tomorrow 20%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 8, 2018: Stratford 1.30, Parlier 1.00, Blackwell 1.20 Lindcove .88, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.01, Porterville .99, Delano 1.04, Madera Two .97.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 66, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 62

 

Record Temperatures: 95/32. Average Temperatures: 73/46

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 17 +10 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 65.4 +7.2

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.64.  Month to Date: .31

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.86, or -1.90,  Month to Date: .13

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:32 am  Sunset: 7:29 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:55

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  78 /  45 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  80 /  49 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  79 /  45 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  81 /  41 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  83 /  52 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  78 /  45 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1645 /  83 /  45 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  81 /  45 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  79 /  53 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  76 /  54 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.74    70   20.74   165    12.54    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    7.56    66   16.01   140    11.46    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.66    52   15.11   139    10.85    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.94    67   13.89   133    10.41    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.40    63   14.70   146    10.08    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.51    51   10.20   116     8.76    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.86    67    7.43   129     5.78     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.13    27    8.79   211     4.16     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    6.68    57   15.79   136    11.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.56    81   15.51   132    11.78    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    5.72    45   17.07   133    12.84    13.95

 

Next report: Wednesday, April 11