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Forecast

April 12, 2018/report

April 12, 2018

Summary: A fast moving cold front spread only light scattered showers down the valley overnight.  The front has already moved into southern California.  Behind the front is a strong northwesterly jet stream aloft which is being lifted by the Tehachapi Mountains, creating upslope cloud cover in Kern County with light rain being reported at Tehachapi with a temperature of only 34.  Gusty winds will also be a challenge over much of the valley today as jet stream energy aloft and strong differences in pressure between building pressure to our west and falling pressure over the interior create the necessary gradient for those wind conditions.  Gusts to 30 to 40 MPH are possible from late morning through early evening, especially along the west side but locally elsewhere.

 

Tonight will be a chilly one in areas where skies remain clear and winds die off.  Mid to upper 30s are possible in the traditional low lying cold spots.  Upstream, I noted this morning temperatures were in the mid to upper 30s in portions of the Sacramento Valley.  There is a slight chance isolated river bottom areas will brush with the lower 30s for short durations, but no real frost threat is expected.

 

Upper level high pressure will begin to build eastward this afternoon and will move overhead over the weekend for significant warming.  The next battle with Mother Nature will take place late Sunday night and Monday as a new low moves into the Pacific Northwest with a cold front and trough passage.  This will result in a chance of light showers over the area, especially north of Kern County.  By Tuesday, upper level high pressure will again be moving in from the eastern Pacific for another round of dry weather before another low possibly moves into California about Thursday, although for now this one appears pretty weak.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today with the exception of Kern County which will remain mostly cloudy for a time this morning.  Mostly clear tonight through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness by late Sunday night leading to light showers Monday, mainly north of Kern County.  Mostly to partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  Increasing cloudiness late Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 64/38/70/44/80 Reedley 65/38/71/43/81 Dinuba 64/36/71/43/80
Porterville 65/38/71/44/82 Lindsay 64/36/71/44/81 Delano 65/41/71/46/82
Bakersfield 64/42/70/48/81 Arvin 63/40/71/45/81 Taft 66/45/71/50/82
Lamont 64/40/71/47/82 Pixley 65/39/71/46/81 Tulare 64/38/70/43/80
Woodlake 65/39/71/45/81 Hanford 64/39/71/44/81 Orosi 64/38/71/44/80

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

51/80`

Monday

Light showers likely

49/66

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

40/65

Wednesday

Mostly clear

42/70

Thursday

Slight chance of showers

45/71

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 19 through April 25:  This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation.  It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest today at 15 to 25 MPH with local gusts to 30 to 40 MPH, mainly along the west side during the late morning and afternoon hours.  Winds will diminish this evening to 5 to 15 MPH overnight.  Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally less than 12 MPH and variable in nature.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through Sunday evening.  It is possible light showers could reach as far south as Fresno County late Sunday night.  The risk factor for light showers,  mainly north of Kern County, will increase Monday as another fast moving cold front zips down the valley.  Most models show dry weather returning by later Monday evening with dry weather returning Monday night through at least Wednesday night.  Models lately have been pointing towards a rather small upper low moving through about Wednesday of next week.  This is still showing up this morning but with only scattered light showers.  Beyond Thursday, the forecast again turns dry for several days.

 

Frost:  Where winds become calm, mid to upper 30s will be possible tonight in the very coldest locations with possibly an isolated river bottom or two dipping into the lower 30s for very short durations.  However, no significant frost is expected.  We may see a fairly similar set of circumstances Tuesday morning behind a cold front which will also move quickly through our region.  Longer term, no pattern is showing up that would result in below freezing conditions.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the mid 30s.  Kern: Upper 20s to the mid 30s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90%  Bakersfield: 25%/75%

Actual Humidity April 10, 2018: Delano, 86%/29%, Porterville, 92%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April `10, 2018: Stratford 1.35, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.30 Lindcove .91, Arvin 1.16, Orange Cove 1.03, Porterville 1.02, Delano 1.07, Madera Two .96.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 66, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 66, Delano 69, Madera Two 63

 

Record Temperatures: 95/34. Average Temperatures: 73/46

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 24 +15 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 65.7 +7.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.71.  Month to Date: .31

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.86, or -1.94,  Month to Date: .13

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:29 am  Sunset: 7:31 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:00

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  73 /  49 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  75 /  54 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  77 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  77 /  49 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  75 /  51 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /  78 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  78 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  75 /  57 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  71 /  51 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.74    69   20.75   165    12.61    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    7.56    66   16.01   139    11.53    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.66    52   15.12   139    10.90    12.50

MADERA                           T    6.94    66   13.89   133    10.47    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.40    63   14.70   145    10.14    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.51    51   10.20   116     8.81    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.86    66    7.43   128     5.82     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.13    27    8.79   210     4.18     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    6.68    57   15.79   135    11.71    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.56    81   15.51   131    11.83    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    5.72    44   17.07   132    12.91    13.95

 

 

Next report: Friday, April 13