April 14, 2018
Summary: A ridge of upper level high pressure is currently moving overhead. This will allow temperatures to make a significant jump today before leveling off Sunday. Most locations on the valley floor this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon should be just at or just past the 80 degree mark. Another wide swing in weather and temperatures will begin as early as late Sunday afternoon and evening from Fresno County northward and over the remainder of the region from Sunday night through Monday.
A cold low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening with its associated trough and cold front moving through central California late Sunday night and during the day Monday. Models show the atmosphere’s parameters possibly becoming unstable enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor Monday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be accompanied by their old friends locally heavy rain and small hail. From Monday night through Wednesday, a new high will build in from the west, signaling a brief warming trend at mid week. Then, a rather compact appearing low pressure system shows up on models moving through the region Thursday. On paper, this system appears rather benign, so if precipitation occurs at all, it would be very light in nature. For now, it appears many areas may remain dry.
Beyond Thursday, a flat zone of high pressure will set up shop over the eastern Pacific Ocean, stretching inland over California with the storm track being deflected to our north for dry weather that should last into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Increasing cloudiness later Sunday with a chance of showers as far south as Fresno and Madera Counties by late afternoon or evening. Light showers likely Sunday night and Monday morning. A chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A small chance of light showers Thursday and Thursday night. Becoming mostly clear Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/49/81/49/61 | Reedley 82/50/82/52/62 | Dinuba 80/49/81/50/63 | |
| Porterville 82/48/82/50/63 | Lindsay 82/48/82/49/62 | Delano 81/53/82/53/63 | |
| Bakersfield 83/56/82/55/64 | Arvin 83/53/82/54/65 | Taft 81/57/81/55/64 | |
| Lamont 82/54/82/52/63 | Pixley 80/49/81/51/63 | Tulare 79/48/80/51/62 | |
| Woodlake 81/48/82/51/62 | Hanford 81/49/82/50/63 | Orosi 80/48/81/51/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 37/66 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 42/76 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 47/68 |
Friday
Mostly clear 44/70 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 44/77 |
Two Week Outlook: April 21 through April 27: This model doesn’t really give a strong indication of either wet or dry weather through this period, so chances are, this late in the season, it will remain dry. Temperatures should run fairly close to seasonal values to perhaps slightly above.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today through Sunday morning. Winds Sunday afternoon will begin to increase out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 20 MPH late Sunday night through Monday evening with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side. After midnight Monday, winds will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH with generally light winds Tuesday through Wednesday.
Rain: The chance of showers will begin to increase as early as late Sunday afternoon from Fresno County southward with light showers spreading over the remainder of the valley Sunday night and Monday morning. The Sierra Nevada should do pretty well with this system, recording about an inch of precipitation from Yosemite northward and as much as a half inch southward of that line. On the valley floor, eastern Fresno County and much of Madera County should pick up between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with generally less than a tenth of an inch south of Fresno County and perhaps just a few hundredths, at best, over the valley portion of Kern County. There may be some exceptions, however, as models are indicating there may be enough dynamics in the atmosphere for isolated thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon and evening. If they do develop, they would be joined by isolated brief heavy rain and small hail. Dry weather will return after Monday evening and will last through at least Wednesday night. After that, another cold but benign system will move through Thursday with only a small chance of light showers. Dry weather will return again later Thursday night and will last through the weekend and possibly well into the following week.
Frost: The air mass behind a cold front which will move down the valley late Sunday night and Monday morning is quite cold with freezing levels possibly dipping to around 4,500 feet or so. Gusty winds will also move down the valley Monday afternoon and evening, possibly lowering dew points enough for some of the colder locations to dip down into the mid to upper 30s with a slight chance of lower 30s in those traditional low cold spots. This will be a one night stand as the strong April sun will allow temperatures to recover quickly Wednesday with no chance of frost on the weather radar thereafter.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/95% Bakersfield: 20%/75%
Actual Humidity April 12, 2018: Delano, 88%/25%, Porterville, 93%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 12, 2018: Stratford 1.37, Parlier 1.07, Blackwell 1.34 Lindcove .91, Arvin 1.15, Orange Cove 1.06, Porterville 1.05, Delano 1.09, Madera Two 1.02. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 66, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 67, Delano 69, Madera Two 63
Record Temperatures: 97/34. Average Temperatures: 74/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 24 +13 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 64.8 +6.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.77. Month to Date: .31
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.86, or -1.97, Month to Date: .13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:26 am Sunset: 7:33 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.77 69 20.95 165 12.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 7.57 65 16.09 139 11.59 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.75 62 15.28 140 10.95 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.95 66 13.95 132 10.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.40 63 16.74 164 10.20 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.56 51 10.21 115 8.86 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.86 66 7.43 127 5.85 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 27 8.79 210 4.19 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.74 57 16.02 136 11.77 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.57 81 15.64 132 11.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.75 44 17.10 132 12.97 13.95
Next report: Sunday, April 15