April 16, 2018
Summary: A fast moving cold front sped down the valley during the predawn hours and has already moved into the Kern County mountains and deserts. Light showers spread all the way down the valley as the front passed and as a colder air mass begins to move inland aloft. The cold core low associated with the front is located just off the northern California coast this morning and will shift eastward across northern and central California this afternoon and evening. Freezing levels will drop to between 4,000 and 5,000 feet during the warmest part of the day, meaning daytime heating will begin to interact with cold air aloft, developing convective showers and isolated thunderstorms after roughly midday or so. The coldest and most unstable portion of the low will move over the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys where some possibly strong thunderstorms could develop. Even though the risk is somewhat lower over the central and south valley, isolated thunderstorms certainly cannot be ruled out. If these storms do develop, there will be isolated pockets of heavy rain and small hail.
After the sun goes down and the daytime heating affect ends, so will the thunderstorms. By the later part of the night, the main low will have moved east of the Sierra Nevada, ending the chance of precipitation over the valley floor. A northwest flow wrapping around the backside of the storm will keep light showers going over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains where snow will be falling as low as 3,800 to 4,000 feet.
Weak upper level high pressure will build in from the west, generating dry weather and a warming trend through Wednesday. A new and weaker low will drop southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Wednesday night and Thursday. The dynamics of this system do appear weaker, so most of the precipitation will be over the Sierra Nevada with a small chance of light showers over the valley floor.
Friday through the weekend will be dry as a stronger ridge builds along the Pacific coast. In fact, a few models show temperatures near the 90 degree mark at the warmest locations by Sunday. The pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week is a bit unclear at this time. Possibilities range from dry and quite warm to a slight chance of showers. The two week model out this morning is indicating a ridge pattern for above average temperatures and little to no chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Light showers likely for a time this morning then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening hours. Showers ending by around midnight then becoming mostly to partly cloudy late tonight through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Increasing high clouds Wednesday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday with a small chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Thursday night. Becoming mostly clear and much warmer Friday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/37/67/40/70` | Reedley 61/37/67/41/71 | Dinuba 60/36/66/41/69 | |
| Porterville 63/37/67/41/71 | Lindsay 63/36/67/40/72 | Delano 63/40/67/42/72 | |
| Bakersfield 63/42/66/45/72 | Arvin 64/41/66/43/72 | Taft 64/45/66/47/71 | |
| Lamont 63/41/66/44/73 | Pixley 63/39/66/42/72 | Tulare 61/37/67/41/72 | |
| Woodlake 60/36/66/40/70 | Hanford 61/37/66/41/71 | Orosi 61/36/67/40/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Small chance of showers 46/60 |
Friday
Mostly clear 43/75 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 50/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Monday
Mostly clear 56/86 |
Two Week Outlook: April 23 through April 29: For the first time in a while, this model is indicating the development of a strong ridge over the Pacific and much of the western United States. This will revert us into a pattern resulting in above average temperatures with very little, if any, chance of precipitation.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will increase later today through this evening to 15 to 25 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH by late evening through the overnight hours. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range, increasing out of the northwest later Wednesday night through Thursday to 15 to 25 MPH. winds will diminish Thursday night with light winds returning Friday through the weekend.
Rain: Light showers have already occurred over the valley this morning, especially north of Kern County. These showers were along the main cold front which is already moving into southern California. The cold core low is just off the northern California coast at this hour and will move inland over northern and central California today through tonight. The weather could become quite interesting this afternoon as the coldest and most unstable portion of the low moves overhead and begins to interact with warm currents of air moving skyward due to daytime heating. This will set up a typical springtime scenario where scattered to isolated thunderstorms may develop. The activity will continue into the evening hours with all active weather ending over the valley floor by midnight.
Rainfall amounts will vary widely from just a few hundredths to possibly as much as a half inch in those locations that do get nailed by a thunderstorm.
Dry weather will return later tonight and will last through Wednesday. The next low to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. This system will not be as strong with most of the precipitation being confined to the Sierra Nevada with only a chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor, mainly north of Kern County.
Dry weather will return again Thursday night and will last over the weekend and well into the following week, although I do hedge a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday as one model shows a low trying to develop off shore, moving inland about midweek. For now, we’ll keep this time frame dry and see what trends develop one way or another.
Frost: The air now moving in behind a cold front that moved through the valley during the predawn hours is very chilly for this late in the season, but is of little concern. Coldest locations tonight where skies clear and winds die off could dip into the mid to upper 30s in low pockets. There’s a slight chance an isolated river bottom out there could tease with the 32 degree mark, but this is not a frost situation. Expect temperatures to remain above freezing from Wednesday morning and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 45%/95% Bakersfield: 30%/80%
Actual Humidity April 14, 2018: Delano, 84%/25%, Porterville, 95%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 14, 2018: Stratford 1.54, Parlier 1.27, Blackwell 1.50 Lindcove 1.12, Arvin 1.37, Orange Cove 1.27, Porterville 1.25, Delano 1.28, Madera Two 1.24. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 65, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 66, Delano 69, Madera Two 63
Record Temperatures: 96/35. Average Temperatures: 74/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 24 +13 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 64.0 +5.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.83. Month to Date: .31
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.86, or -2.01, Month to Date: .13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23 am Sunset: 7:34 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1644 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.77 69 20.95 164 12.74 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 7.57 65 16.09 138 11.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.75 61 15.28 139 11.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.95 66 13.95 132 10.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.40 62 16.74 163 10.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.56 51 10.21 115 8.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.86 66 7.43 126 5.88 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 27 8.79 209 4.21 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.74 57 16.02 135 11.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.57 80 15.64 131 11.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.75 44 17.10 131 13.04 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, April 17