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Forecast

April 20, 2018/report

April 20, 2018

Summary: Today will begin a prolonged period of dry and much warmer weather.  Freezing levels, even though they are still relatively low, will rapidly rise over the next 72 hours as warmer air begins to move in aloft associated with the building high pressure.  The current freezing level taken last night was 6,700 feet.  By Sunday that level should rise to between 12,000 and 13,000 feet.  By Sunday, some of the warmest locations on the valley floor, especially in Kings and Kern Counties, could eclipse the 90 degree mark.  As you might expect with warm descending air, winds will be light over the next several days.  By the middle of next week, a low pressure system will be off the northern California coast.  Most models now project it will  move inland through California about Thursday night or Friday.  The only precipitation associated with this feature will be confined to the Sierra Nevada, and even there the chance of measurable rain appears relatively low at this time.

 

Temperatures will fall back closer to seasonal values by Friday or Saturday of next week, but all of the medium range models still point to dry weather with relatively high pressure dominating the situation.  One model does show a low center approaching the central coast about the first of May, but for now it’s the odd model out.  With that in mind, we’ll go with a fairly tranquil forecast through the end of the month.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 77/50/84/53/88 Reedley 78/51/85/52/89 Dinuba 77/49/84/52/88
Porterville 78/50/84/54/90 Lindsay 78/48/84/53/89 Delano 78/53/85/55/90`
Bakersfield 77/56/86/59/91 Arvin 78/54/86/56/90 Taft 77/57/85/60/90
Lamont 78/55/85/58/90 Pixley 77/50/85/54/89 Tulare 77/49/84/52/88
Woodlake 77/51/85/53/89 Hanford 78/52/85/54/89 Orosi 77/49/85/53/88

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

54/89

Tuesday

Mostly clear

56/89

Wednesday

Mostly clear

55/88

Thursday

Partly cloudy

56/84

Friday

Partly cloudy

52/79

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 27 through May 3:  For the first time in a while, this model is indicating the development of a strong ridge over the Pacific and much of the western United States.  This will revert us into a pattern resulting in above average temperatures with very little, if any, chance of precipitation.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature through Monday.  Winds during the night and early morning hours will be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above 32 degrees.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/95%  Bakersfield: 20%/70%

Actual Humidity April 18, 2018: Delano, 93%/41%, Porterville, 99%/34%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 18, 2018: Stratford 1.35, Parlier 1.14, Blackwell 1.46 Lindcove 1.09, Arvin 1.27, Orange Cove 1.17, Porterville 1.16, Delano 1.20, Madera Two 1.08.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 68, Madera Two 63

 

Record Temperatures: 93/35. Average Temperatures: 76/48

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 27 +10 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 62.3 +3.2

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.62.  Month to Date: .64

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.00.  Month to Date: .20

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:19 am  Sunset: 7:37 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:17

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  69 /  39 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  70 /  40 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  71 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  73 /  47 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  72 /  43 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  71 /  51 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  70 /  48 /    T /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1644 /  68 /  45 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  69 /  44 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  67 /  49 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  70 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.09    71   21.64   168    12.86    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.00    68   16.78   142    11.78    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.91    62   15.79   141    11.16    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    67   14.17   132    10.72    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    65   17.08   165    10.38    11.50

HANFORD                          T    4.70    52   10.65   118     9.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.93    66    7.76   130     5.95     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.13    27    8.81   208     4.24     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.13    60   16.32   137    11.95    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T    9.62    80   15.96   133    11.99    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.18    6.01    46   18.10   138    13.15    13.95

 

Next report: Saturday April 21