April 28, 2018
Summary: Skies are generally clear over central California with the exception of the Tehachapi Mountains where upslope clouds are forming due to a strong northwesterly push of air being lifted by the slopes. Even on the valley floor, it’s somewhat breezy along the west side and even towards the center of the valley where many locations are reporting winds out of the northwest at around 10 to 15 MPH.
An upper low is now moving into the Pacific Northwest and is digging a trough southward into northern and central California. The portion of the trough at our latitude is dry so no precipitation is expected in the short term. The main impact will be periods of gusty winds with temperatures near to even marginally below average.
By Monday, a secondary low will develop along the western side of the trough. It will rapidly swing southward just to our west Monday night through Tuesday night. This would favor the formation of showers and thunderstorms over the mountain areas and possibly even over the valley floor, especially Tuesday and Tuesday evening. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. For now, this does look like a situation where most locations will remain dry.
The low will actually intensify somewhat as it swings through central California later Tuesday through Wednesday. By then, the main dynamics of this system will be far enough to the south to eliminate any chance of rain. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west later next week through the weekend for tranquil weather with temperatures rising to above average by Thursday. Medium range models show upper level high pressure pretty much dominating the weather pattern for above average temperatures and dry conditions well into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Variable cloudiness Monday night through Tuesday night with a small chance of scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/44/74/44/74 | Reedley 75/45/74/45/75 | Dinuba 75/43/75/44/75 | |
| Porterville 77/43/75/43/75 | Lindsay 77/43/74/42/74 | Delano 77/48/75/46/76 | |
| Bakersfield 77/50/75/51/75 | Arvin 77/49/74/46/76 | Taft 76/53/74/51/75 | |
| Lamont 77/48/74/47/75 | Pixley 76/44/75/44/75 | Tulare 74/43/74/43/75 | |
| Woodlake 76/44/75/44/76 | Hanford 76/45/74/45/76 | Orosi 76/43/75/44/75 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 50/68 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 47/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 51/83 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Two Week Outlook: May 2 through May 8: This model is redeveloping a ridge pattern over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. This indicates we will have above average temperatures with very little, if any chance, of precipitation.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: All the way through Tuesday there will be periods of winds out of the west/northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the west side. This will be interspersed with somewhat lighter winds, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Models this morning continue to show a low pressure system moving rapidly southward then moving to a position just to our west by late Monday night. This system might result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from late Monday night through Tuesday night. The best chance will occur Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, which, in theory, could result in localized heavy rain and small hail. The chance of this occurring remains relatively low as most of the active weather will be confined to the mountain areas. For now, I put the chance of measurable rain at any given location at no more than 20% to 30%. By Wednesday, the storm will be speeding eastward through southern California, too far to the south for any additional chance of precipitation. Expect dry weather from Wednesday and indefinitely thereafter.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/75%
Actual Humidity April 26, 2018: Delano, 81%/21`%, Porterville, 79%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 26, 2018: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.50, Blackwell 1.90 Lindcove 1.52, Arvin 1.63, Orange Cove 1.57, Porterville 1.55, Delano 1.56, Madera Two 1.47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 70, Blackwell 71, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 71, Delano 74, Madera Two 66
Record Temperatures: 98/36. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 69 +40 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 64.3 +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.84. Month to Date: .64
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.11. Month to Date: .20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:08 am Sunset: 7:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 75 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 73 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 69 21.68 166 13.08 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 67 16.78 140 12.00 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 61 15.79 139 11.40 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 66 14.17 129 10.99 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 63 17.08 161 10.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 51 10.65 115 9.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 65 7.76 128 6.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 26 8.81 205 4.29 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 59 16.36 135 12.13 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 79 15.96 132 12.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 45 18.10 136 13.35 13.95
Next report: Monday, April 30