May 10, 2018
Summary: Temperatures are running 3 to 6 degrees below what they were 24 hours ago. A trough of low pressure now moving into the Pacific Northwest has created a westerly flow over central California, both at the surface and aloft. Marine air is moving inland. I noted the winds at Pacheco Pass were sustained at 17 MPH, which is not a strong push but that, combined with what’s moving through the Delta, will lower temperatures down into the low to mid 80s at most locations. I look for temperatures to pretty much remain in that range through the weekend. The low I alluded to a moment ago will drop southeastward into the Great Basin Friday and eventually cut off. In other words, it will become a cut off low. Models continue to show this system parking over the Great Basin through Monday, but by early next week it will begin to weaken. It’s possible that with the cooler air moving in aloft, and the intense May sunshine, there may be enough of a one-two punch to result in thunderstorms over the high elevations of the Sierra Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
By Monday, this system will have finally moved eastward, however a new low will develop off the northern California coast Wednesday. One model actually indicates the low will move to a position right over central California about a week from now. For now, this system looks to be dry, but it will be worth keeping an eye on. Medium range models are reverting back to near average temperatures with little, if any, chance of rain.
Forecast: Other than a few high, thin clouds at times, skies will be generally clear through Monday. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Wednesday, possibly becoming partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/54/84/52/84 | Reedley 86/54/85/54/84 | Dinuba 85/53/84/52/83 | |
| Porterville 86/54/85/54/84 | Lindsay 86/55/85/51/83 | Delano 87/54/85/54/83 | |
| Bakersfield 85/59/84/58/84 | Arvin 87/58/86/56/84 | Taft 86/64/84/61/83 | |
| Lamont 87/57/85/55/85 | Pixley 86/55/85/54/83 | Tulare 84/53/84/52/83 | |
| Woodlake 86/54/85/53/84 | Hanford 85/55/84/52/84 | Orosi 86/54/84/54/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 54/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 55/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 55/81 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 52/80 |
Two Week Outlook: May 17 through May 23: This model is reverting back to a weaker version of high pressure over the western U.S. with possibly some kind of low pressure system involved. This time of year, the chance of precipitation will be very minimal with temperatures falling back to seasonal values.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Sunday with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly towards the center and west side of the valley.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity May 8, 2018: Delano, 80%/26%, Porterville, 78%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 8, 2018: Stratford 1.73, Parlier 1.56, Blackwell 1.73 Lindcove 1.50, Arvin 1.61, Orange Cove 1.65, Porterville 1.52, Delano 1.49, Madera Two 1.60. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 69, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 75, Delano 74, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 101/39. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 112 +55 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.3 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.09. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.23. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:56 am Sunset: 7:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 86 / 65 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 68 21.68 163 13.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 65 16.79 137 12.30 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 59 15.79 134 11.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 64 14.17 126 11.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 62 17.20 159 10.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 50 11.04 116 9.49 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 64 7.81 127 6.17 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.22 28 9.03 207 4.36 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 58 16.36 133 12.33 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 131 12.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 136 13.55 13.95
Next report: Friday, May 11