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Forecast

May 16, 2018/report

May 16, 2018

Summary:  Water vapor satellite imagery clearly depicts a closed low centered right over the San Francisco Bay Area this morning.  This system will inch its way across central California today into early Thursday then will move into the Great Basin by Thursday afternoon.  An absolute wall of marine air surged over the coastal mountains and into the valley overnight.  This resulted in a layer of cloud cover based between 4,000 and 5,000 feet at most reporting stations.  These clouds will continue to bank up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains through Thursday morning.  This will result in much cooler temperatures and gusty winds, especially along the west side of the valley.

 

By Friday, the low will shift far enough to the east to allow pressures to rise over the weekend, resulting in a warming trend but nothing significant.  An encore will begin late Sunday night and Monday as yet another closed low drops southward from off the coast of Oregon to near San Francisco Monday afternoon.  Like its predecessors, this system will be dry, but will continue the risk of isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through Tuesday.

 

By Wednesday, the low will have moved eastward, allowing for a minor warming trend.  Some of the medium range models place a cut off low off the central coast late Wednesday through Friday of next week.  So far, the ramifications of this system appear to be minor, but the placement of this system will be critical to temperature forecasting and the possible reintroduction of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning.  Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  Mostly cloudy tonight and Thursday morning, mainly along the east side and in Kern County.  Clearing Thursday afternoon.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 74/52/78/54/83 Reedley 75/52/80/53/84 Dinuba 74/51/78/54/83
Porterville 75/54/80/55/85 Lindsay 75/53/81/55/84 Delano 75/56/80/56/84
Bakersfield 74/57/78/60/83 Arvin 74/57/80/58/85 Taft 74/58/78/58/82
Lamont 75/57/79/59/83 Pixley 75/55/79/56/84 Tulare 74/53/79/55/83
Woodlake 75/52/79/54/84 Hanford 75/53/80/56/84 Orosi 74/54/79/56/84

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

57/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

57/87

Monday

Partly cloudy

55/82

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

53/79

Wednesday

Mostly clear

54/84

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 21 through May 27:  This model, in one way, shape, or form, indicates a weak trough of low pressure will hang for several days over the interior west.  This would result in a relatively strong on shore flow, maintaining near average temperatures.  Any precipitation would likely be confined to the Sierra Nevada in the form of isolated PM thunderstorms.

 

May:  This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation. 

 

May, June, July:  Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California.  This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail.  Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds: winds today will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in Fresno and Kings Counties.  Winds tonight and Thursday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts along the west side.  Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range late mornings through early evenings and 5 to 15 MPH during the overnight hours with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90%  Bakersfield: 30%/70%

Actual Humidity May 14, 2018: Delano, 87%/30%, Porterville, 84%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 14, 2018: Stratford 1.93, Parlier 1.72, Blackwell 1.97 Lindcove 1.64, Arvin 1.83, Orange Cove 1.82, Porterville 1.67, Delano 1.68, Madera Two 1.79.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two NA

 

Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 84/54

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 145 +59 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for May so far, 69.6 +2.9

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since July 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.18.  Month to Date: .00

Since July 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.27.  Month to Date: T

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:51 am  Sunset: 8:00 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14.07

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  81 /  53 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  82 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  57 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  83 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  84 /  60 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  81 /  54 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  82 /  54 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  83 /  55 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  81 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  78 /  58 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.09    68   21.68   161    13.45    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.00    64   16.79   135    12.43    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.91    58   15.79   133    11.88    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    63   14.17   124    11.41    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    62   17.20   158    10.92    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    49   11.04   115     9.57    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.93    63    7.81   126     6.20     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.25    28    9.16   209     4.39     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.13    57   16.36   132    12.40    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    78   16.14   131    12.34    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   135    13.62    13.95

 

Next report:  Thursday, May 17