May 18, 2018
Summary: A weak upper low remains over the Great Basin this morning but it will move into Utah this afternoon, allowing pressures to marginally rise over the next 48 hours. Overall, however, there will be a lingering weak trough of low pressure over and off the west coast through Saturday night. By Sunday, it will begin to form a new low circulation over northern California. It will drop into central California by Monday and possibly somewhere near southern Nevada Monday night through Wednesday. In the short term, even though there remains an on shore flow, temperatures will marginally rise a bit today and Saturday, but only to near seasonal averages. Since we are dealing with predominantly low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Monday and Tuesday will be a little bit trick as the position of the upper low will turn the winds briefly out of the east or northeast. This could nudge a few showers or thunderstorms over the foothills. For now, I’m not calling for any precipitation in the valley, but will watch it closely just to make sure.
Temperatures will again cool to sub-80 by Monday then will struggle back to near average again by Tuesday and Wednesday as the low struggles back towards the east. Current models want to move weak high pressure in from the west Thursday and Friday. From there, models diverge with a new low possibly approaching the west coast by next weekend although there are too many model differences to really have much focus on that as of now.
Forecast: Other than some lower level clouds along the foothills of Tulare and Kern County, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/55/87/56/84 | Reedley 84/56/87/57/84 | Dinuba 83/56/86/57/83 | |
| Porterville 85/56/88/57/86 | Lindsay 84/56/87/56/85 | Delano 85/57/88/57/85 | |
| Bakersfield 83/60/87/61/85 | Arvin 84/59/87/58/86 | Taft 84/62/87/62/85 | |
| Lamont 84/59/87/60/84 | Pixley 85/57/86/58/85 | Tulare 84/56/86/57/85 | |
| Woodlake 85/56/87/56/84 | Hanford 85/56/87/57/84 | Orosi 85/56/87/56/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 56/78 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 57/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 58/88 |
Friday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31 This model is showing more ridging prevailing over the western United States and off shore. This will result in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be very low.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late mornings through early evenings through Sunday and generally light during the night and morning hours. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity May 16, 2018: Delano, 90%/38%, Porterville, 91%/36%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 16, 2018: Stratford 1.83, Parlier 1.66, Blackwell 1.99, Lindcove 1.61, Arvin 1.79, Orange Cove 1.72, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.66, Madera Two 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 106/44. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 153 +57 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.5 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.20. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.28. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:49 am Sunset: 8:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 78 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1648 / 78 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 67 21.68 161 13.49 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 135 12.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 133 11.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 124 11.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 157 10.95 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 115 9.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 126 6.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.25 28 9.16 208 4.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 57 16.36 132 12.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 131 12.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.64 13.95
Next report: Saturday, May 19