May 19, 2018
Summary: The weak low which was overhead yesterday is now hard to identify, but overall it has moved into the Great Basin. This has allowed pressures to marginally rise over central California. Even so, a weakness remains in the upper atmosphere. Temperature forecasting for this afternoon will be rather difficult. Even though the marine layer has shrunk back to 2,300 feet, there is enough of a difference in pressure between the coast and the interior to tug that sea breeze inland. At last report, Pacheco Pass was reporting sustained winds of 24 MPH, gusting to 30. Winds are gusting in excess of 30 MPH at Fairfield. Temperatures this afternoon will depend on how much of that modified sea breeze moves down the valley balanced with marginally high pressure aloft.
A trough of low pressure will drop southward into northern California Sunday then will form a closed low circulation pattern over central California Monday and southern California Tuesday. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will turn the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere out of the east/northeast. This will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and with that off shore flow aloft, it’s possible isolated showers or thunderstorms could spill into the eastern portion of the valley, especially Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
The low will move into the Desert Southwest Wednesday for the beginning of a warming trend. There are distinct differences in modeling information for Thursday through Saturday. Most models show a strong low off the northern and central California coast. One model moves it inland, result in an increasing chance of showers, while others show it moving northeastward, keeping high pressure over the area. For now, we’ll go with the dry scenario, considering the patterns of the season.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear this afternoon through Sunday with occasional high clouds. Becoming partly cloudy late Sunday night through Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills and generally during the afternoons and evenings. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/55/84/53/81 | Reedley 86/55/85/54/81 | Dinuba 84/54/83/53/80 | |
| Porterville 86/55/84/53/80 | Lindsay 86/54/85/53/80 | Delano 87/57/84/56/81 | |
| Bakersfield 86/60/85/59/82 | Arvin 87/58/85/56/82 | Taft 85/62/85/59/81 | |
| Lamont 86/59/85/58/81 | Pixley 85/54/85/54/81 | Tulare 84/54/84/53/80 | |
| Woodlake 84/54/83/53/80 | Hanford 85/56/85/54/81 | Orosi 84/54/84/53/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 58/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/85 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/90 |
Friday
Mostly clear 60/92 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/93 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31 This model is showing more ridging prevailing over the western United States and off shore. This will result in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be very low.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late mornings through early evenings through Sunday and generally light during the night and morning hours. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side. Expect winds to decrease Monday night and Tuesday.
Rain: A closed low will move into central California Monday and southern California Tuesday. This will turn the winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere out of the east or northeast. This will give way to a possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms to move out over the foothills, possibly clipping the eastern San Joaquin Valley, mainly Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low but high enough to mention in the forecast. For now, expect dry weather Tuesday night and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity May 17, 2018: Delano, 93%/28%, Porterville, 94%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 17, 2018: Stratford 1.83, Parlier 1.66, Blackwell 1.97, Lindcove 1.62, Arvin 1.71, Orange Cove 1.72, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.66, Madera Two 1.71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 76, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 103/42. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 156 +55 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.4 +2.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.22. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.28. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:48 am Sunset: 8:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 67 21.68 161 13.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 134 12.50 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 132 11.93 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 124 11.46 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 157 10.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 115 9.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 126 6.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.25 28 9.16 208 4.41 5.18
SALINAS T 7.13 57 16.36 132 12.43 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 130 12.37 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.65 13.95
Next report: Monday, May 21