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Forecast

July 11, 2018/report

July 11, 2018

Summary: The flow aloft is currently east/southeast and continues to pump monsoon moisture into central and southern California.  Embedded within this flow is a very weak easterly wave which will aid in triggering scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.  The thunderstorm activity over the mountains will be pretty much a daily routine as models are continuing to project a generally southeast flow.  This flow is favorable in driving mid and high level moisture into the region.

 

By the time we get to the weekend and early next week, essentially two high centers covering about 80% of the lower 48 will completely dominate the weather with above average temperatures.  One high will be over the Mississippi Valley.  The second high center will be right over California, driving temperatures even hotter, especially for the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.  Models are also showing another batch of monsoon moisture arriving about Tuesday of next week, yet again increasing the chance of thunderstorms over the mountains.  On occasion, a thunderstorm or two could even clip the San Joaquin Valley.  Typically if this occurs, just trace amounts to a few hundredths are recorded, but for now we’re not going to add that to the forecast.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday and continued hot.  Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Wednesday and continued  hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 101/68/101/69/101 Reedley 100/70/100/69/100 Dinuba 99/67/99/68/100
Porterville 101/67/101/68/102 Lindsay 100/67/100/68/101 Delano 101/72/101/73/102
Bakersfield 102/78/102/78/102 Arvin 102/74/102/75/102 Taft 100/80/100/81/100
Lamont 101/73/101/74/101 Pixley 101/68/101/69/101 Tulare 99/67/99/68/101
Woodlake 100/67/101/68/100 Hanford 101/68/101/70/102 Orosi 100/68/100/69/102

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

70/103

Sunday

Mostly clear

71/104

Monday

Partly cloudy

73/105

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

73/104

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

71/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 17 through July 23:  This model indicates a continuation of persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and California.  This pattern will favor monsoon moisture moving into our region from time to time for partly cloudy skies.  Thunderstorms will also be possible each day over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains.  Temperatures will range above seasonal values.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 20%/55%

Actual Humidity July 10, 2018: Delano, 96%/23%, Porterville, 67%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.26, Parlier NA, Blackwell 2.09, Lindcove 1.96, Arvin 2.19, Orange Cove 2.17, Porterville 1.85, Delano 1.92, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/52. Average Temperatures: 98/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 798.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 82.9 +4.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:50 am  Sunset: 8:19 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:35

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 101 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  63 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  97 /  75 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1650 /  95 /  70 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  66 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 / 100 /  76 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  98 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    60   17.20   152    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    32    9.16   194     4.73     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.77    13.95

 

Next report:  July 12