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Forecast

July 17, 2018/report

July 17, 2018

Summary: High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is centered over northern California.  This will cause temperatures to climb to well above average levels, generally ranging between 102 and 107.  It is possible, though, that cloud cover could interfere with that Wednesday and Thursday.  The clockwise flow around the high is beginning to shift and become out of the east.  Models are projecting a fairly significant batch of monsoonal moisture moving from east to west across central California Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.  Also, there is an easterly wave moving through western New Mexico.  This wave will traverse southern California, especially Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  It could be enough to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms even out over the valley floor.  Needless to say, thunderstorm activity will become more numerous over the Sierra and even over the Kern County mountains.  By Friday, the flow aloft will be out of the south, pushing this batch of moisture to our north.  By the time we get into the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, winds will be out of the southwest which is a very dry pattern once again.  Models show only slight cooling over the weekend and into early next week.  Temperatures will begin to bump up again as the high over the Desert Southwest strengthens and shifts a bit further west.  In theory, this could move the monsoon back into our region in about another seven to eight days.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Wednesday morning. Variable clouds at times Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night with a small chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy Friday.  Becoming  mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 104/69/105/74/103 Reedley 104/71/104/74/103 Dinuba 102/68/103/71/102
Porterville 105/71/106/74/102 Lindsay 105/70/106/73/103 Delano 104/73/105/76/103
Bakersfield 105/79/105/80/104 Arvin 106/75/106/77/104 Taft 104/82/105/83/104
Lamont 105/76/106/78/104 Pixley 104/69/105/73/103 Tulare 103/67/104/72/103
Woodlake 104/69/105/73/102 Hanford 105/70/106/74/103 Orosi 104/69/105/72/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Partly cloudy

73/103

Saturday

Mostly clear

70/102

Sunday

Mostly clear

69/103

Monday

Mostly clear

71/104

Tuesday

Mostly clear

70/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 24 through July 30:  This time, this model continues to show above average temperatures throughout the western U.S., including California.  The position of the high will be such that the monsoon may not be as much as a factor as the high will actually block it, keeping it mainly in northern Mexico.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  A significant batch of monsoonal moisture will move in from the east Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.  Add to this an easterly wave which will move through our region during this time frame and it will certainly enhance the possibility of thunderstorm activity over the mountains and there may be enough lift in the atmosphere to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.  Typically in these situations, just trace amounts to nothing is recorded, but on occasion, a few hundredths could be tallied up, especially near the foothills.  On rare occasions, upwards to a quarter of an inch has fallen.  This time around, we’ll go with just a small chance of measurable precipitation during the mentioned time frame.  A southwesterly flow will slowly develop over the weekend, pushing the monsoon east of the Sierra Nevada.  For now, it looks like dry weather will prevail after this.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65%  Bakersfield: 15%/50%

Actual Humidity July 16, 2018: Delano, 90%/26%, Porterville, 81%/17%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 50%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 40%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.28, Parlier 2.01, Blackwell 2.34, Lindcove 1.87, Arvin 2.25, Orange Cove 2.19, Porterville 1.88, Delano 1.92, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 82, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 84, Delano 82, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 114/56. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 929 +230.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 84.3 +5.6

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:54 am  Sunset: 8:16 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:22

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  62 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 104 /  73 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 104 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 105 /  68 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 103 /  77 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  69 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1630 / 101 /  80 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 103 /  69 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 / 103 /  79 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  97 /  67 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.95    62    9.16   192     4.77     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.78    13.95

 

Next report:  July 18