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Forecast

July 24, 2018/report

July 24, 2018

Summary: Strong upper level high pressure has shifted further west and is currently in eastern Arizona.  By tomorrow, it will be over western Arizona and southern California.  A blistering heat wave is in progress over southern California where hottest locations this afternoon will surpass the 120 degree mark.  It will be hot in the valley, as well, but somewhat more reasonable.  Latest soundings indicate pressures aloft have risen.  This should nudge temperatures up a few degrees today and maybe one or two more degrees Wednesday and Thursday with hottest locations possibly reaching 108 to 110.  No hope from the marine layer which has been crushed down to about 1,000 feet.  The flow aloft is out of the south, but very little moisture is downstream so the most we will see are some occasional high clouds dotting the skies from time to time.

 

Over the weekend, a weak little impulse will move through the high, deepening the marine layer just a bit and possibly allowing marine air to spill through the Delta and Pacheco Pass.  Currently it appears there is little chance of the modified sea breeze reaching the central or south valley, so even though temperatures will marginally come down, most locations will still remain over the century mark.

 

The medium range outlook is not encouraging as above average temperatures continue under upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday with occasional high clouds and hot.  Mostly clear with occasional high clouds Friday night through Tuesday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 105/71/106/72/106 Reedley 105/71/106/72/107 Dinuba 103/69/104/71/106
Porterville 105/71/107/73/108 Lindsay 105/70/107/72/107 Delano 105/74/107/74/108
Bakersfield 105/78/107/80/108 Arvin 106/74/108/76/108 Taft 104/82/106/83/107
Lamont 105/75/107/77/109 Pixley 104/70/106/72/107 Tulare 103/69/105/71/106
Woodlake 103/69/105/71/106 Hanford 105/70/105/72/107 Orosi 103/69/105/70/106

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

72/105

Saturday

Mostly clear

71/104

Sunday

Mostly clear

69/102

Monday

Mostly clear

71/103

Tuesday

Mostly clear

70/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 30 through August 5:  This model continues to point to a hot pattern over California and much of the interior and southwest United States.  Upper level high pressure will be mainly over the southwest with monsoon moisture possibly working into southern California during this time frame.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 20%/60%

Actual Humidity July 23, 2018: Delano, 82%/35%, Porterville, 82%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.18, Parlier 2.01, Blackwell 2.36, Lindcove 1.94, Arvin 2.21, Orange Cove 2.20, Porterville 1.78, Delano 1.93, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 113/55. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1060 +271.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.0 +5.9

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:59 am  Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:13

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  75 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 101 /  73 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 102 /  70 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  99 /  77 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  98 /  70 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  71 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 / 100 /  78 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                           T    3.01    63    9.16   191     4.80     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.78    13.95

 

Next report:  July 25