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Forecast

July 31, 2018/report

July 31, 2018

Summary: High pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere continues unabated.  The center of circulation this morning is in extreme western Arizona.  The clockwise flow around the high keeps a southeasterly flow going into southern and central California.  Most of the cloud cover this morning is over the Sierra Nevada but debris clouds from storms that developed over Nevada and southern California will be visible from time to time through tonight.  The high will shift a bit to the east Wednesday and Thursday, allowing winds aloft to become out of the southwest.  This will effectively nudge the monsoon back into Nevada with generally clear skies Wednesday and beyond.

 

The marine layer this morning is only 1,000 feet deep so there’s no chance of a modified sea breeze reaching the valley.  Temperatures will remain in triple digits through at least Friday.  There is light at the end of the tunnel, though.  A trend is developing on models showing a fairly significant low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday.  This low will develop a trough southward into northern and central California Sunday.  It appears we will drop into double digits Sunday with mid to upper 90s likely for most of next week.

 

Any precipitation from this trough, as per usual this time of year, will remain well to our north.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy today and tonight.  Mostly clear Wednesday and all the way through Tuesday of next week.  Continued  hot through Saturday with a cooling trend beginning Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 103/69/103/67/101 Reedley 103/68/102/67/102 Dinuba 102/66/102/67/101
Porterville 104/68/104/67/102 Lindsay 104/67/103/67/102 Delano 105/71/104/70/103
Bakersfield 105/79/104/77/102 Arvin 105/75/104/74/103 Taft 105/82/105/82/103
Lamont 106/75/105/73/102 Pixley 104/69/103/67/102 Tulare 102/67/102/67/101
Woodlake 103/68/103/68/101 Hanford 104/70/104/68/102 Orosi 103/69/103/68/101

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

66/102

Saturday

Mostly clear

65/101

Sunday

Mostly clear

63/97

Monday

Mostly clear

63/95

Tuesday

Mostly clear

62/94

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 7 through August 13:  A pattern change is evident on this model.  Gone is the strong high that dominated our pattern for the month of July.  In its place is a decent on shore flow with near to slightly below average temperatures.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the low 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity July 30, 2018: Delano, 93%/21%, Porterville, 79%/16%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.11, Parlier 1.78, Blackwell 2.17, Lindcove 1.80, Arvin 2.28, Orange Cove 1.94, Porterville 1.73, Delano 1.85, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, 84, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 83, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 114/53. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1227 +318.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.1 +5.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:05 am  Sunset: 8:05 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:02

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 100 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 100 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  79 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  81 /  67 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  99 /  70 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 / 102 /  80 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  96 /  64 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.01    62    9.16   190     4.83     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  August 1