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Forecast

August 2, 2018/report

August 2, 2018

Summary: Upper level high pressure centered over western Arizona has weakened slightly over the past 24 hours.  This may allow temperatures today to move downward a degree or two, but they will still remain above the century mark both today and Friday.  The south valley may see some lower hundreds even on Saturday.  The high will begin to flatten out as a low develops off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  This will begin to cause the marine layer to deepen enough for a shallow intrusion to move through the Delta and other gaps and passes along the Coast Range.  Temperatures will move down into the mid to upper 90s, especially Sunday and Monday.

 

The flow aloft is now southwesterly and will move the remaining scraps of monsoonal moisture into Nevada this afternoon.  The upper winds will then become westerly Friday through Monday with clear skies and temperatures near to marginally below average.

 

Models for next week do not look agreeable for reasonably temperate weather.  The high, which will be suppressed southward this weekend, will again build northward over California beginning Tuesday with triple digits again becoming likely.  In fact, we may see temperatures in the 104 to 108 degree range by midweek with possibly another string of triple digit days to follow.  Models also show a hurricane south of Cabo San Lucas Tuesday and Wednesday but current forecast models show it moving westward, so no impact is expected here.  However, the monsoon should make a triumphant return by midweek as the winds aloft again become out of the southeast, drawing mid and high level moisture into central California from Arizona and northern Mexico.  The bottom line is the relentless very hot summer we’re enduring will continue after a break weekend break.

 

Forecast: Occasional high clouds, otherwise it will be mostly clear this morning.  Mostly clear this afternoon through Monday night and not as hot.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday and hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 101/62/100/62/98 Reedley 103/65/101/64/98 Dinuba 101/65/100/63/97
Porterville 104/67/102/65/99 Lindsay 103/66/101/64/98 Delano 104/69/102/66/100
Bakersfield 104/75/102/73/100 Arvin 105/73/103/70/100 Taft 104/80/102/78/100
Lamont 105/71/102/68/99 Pixley 104/66/102/64/99 Tulare 102/65/100/63/97
Woodlake 104/65/101/64/98 Hanford 104/67/102/65/99 Orosi 103/66/102/64/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

64/96

Monday

Mostly clear

63/97

Tuesday

Mostly clear

66/101

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

71/105

Thursday

Partly cloudy

70/105

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 8 through August 14:  This model indicates a strong high will be over the Desert Southwest and California.  This pattern is favorable for well above average temperatures with the chance of the monsoon moving into central and southern California from time to time, although no measurable rain is expected.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest this afternoon and evening at 10 to 15 MPH.  winds Friday and Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to around 30 MPH, especially along the Interstate Five corridor but locally elsewhere.  Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 15%/65%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity August 1, 2018: Delano, 79%/17%, Porterville, 73%/15%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.04, Parlier 1.82, Blackwell 2.13, Lindcove 1.78, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.05, Porterville 1.73, Delano 1.85, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 81, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 82, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 112/53. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1271 +336

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for August so far, 87.0 +7.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:06 am  Sunset: 8:03 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:58

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 103 /  66 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 105 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 106 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 105 /  68 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 106 /  79 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 / 103 /  83 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 104 /  71 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 / 104 /  80 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 100 /  67 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.01    62    9.16   189     4.85     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  August 3