August 4, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation of the upper level high is now just west of San Diego. It is being pressed southward by a weak low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a very weak trough trying to move into northern California. The marine layer is only 900 feet deep, so that weak trough has not yet affected the marine layer. The air aloft remains very warm with a freezing level at 16,500 feet. Even so, that weak trough is marginally weakening the high pressure system. It’s possible a few locations could dip into the upper 90s this afternoon with warmer locations around the century mark. It appears now temperatures will range between 96 to 99 Sunday and Monday as that trough pushes eastward. We could actually see a shallow burst of marine air into the valley tonight and Saturday, but it will begin to mix out about Monday night with yet another heat wave beginning Tuesday.
The high currently centered west of San Diego will expand northward over California and Nevada. By Wednesday, we could see readings eclipsing the 105 degree mark with hottest locations even warmer. The next chance of even minor cooling will occur about a week from tomorrow and even then there’s no guarantees with there being some differences on models.
The monsoon has been forced southward into northwest Mexico as the winds aloft are now out of the west. A southeast flow will develop about Wednesday or Thursday of next week, possibly moving a limited amount of monsoonal moisture into central California. Currently, models indicate moisture from the monsoon will be very limited with just isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra Wednesday through Friday of this coming week.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday night. Becoming hot Tuesday. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday with occasional cloudiness and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/62/97/61/97 | Reedley 100/64/97/63/98 | Dinuba 99/62/97/61/97 | |
| Porterville 100/63/98/63/98 | Lindsay 100/63/97/62/97 | Delano 100/68/98/66/98 | |
| Bakersfield 101/71/98/70/98 | Arvin 101/68/99/67/98 | Taft 100/72/99/71/98 | |
| Lamont 100/68/98/68/98 | Pixley 100/64/97/63/97 | Tulare 99/63/97/62/97 | |
| Woodlake 99/63/97/62/97 | Hanford 100/63/97/62/97 | Orosi 100/63/97/62/98 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 66/101 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 68/105 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 70/106 |
Friday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 70/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 11 through August 17: This model indicates temperatures will be a bit less hot than previously projected. The persistent upper high will shift into the Four Corners region, possibly lowering temperatures to near to marginally above average. There also seems to be a reasonable chance of monsoon moisture moving in from the southeast for a chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra and possibly partly cloudy skies at times over the valley floor.
August: If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief. In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor. Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September. Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts today. There could possibly be gusts to near 30 MPH along the west side, especially right along the I-5 corridor. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 15%/60% Bakersfield: 15%/45%
Actual Humidity August 3, 2018: Delano, 92%/15%, Porterville, 79%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.88, Blackwell 2.13, Lindcove 1.80, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.07, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.88, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 81, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 81, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 82, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 110/53. Average Temperatures: 99/67
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1308 +345. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 84.7 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:08 am Sunset: 8:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 103 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 103 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 103 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 110 / 71 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 106 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 101 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.01 62 9.16 189 4.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.79 13.95
Next report: August 6