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Forecast

August 7, 2018/report

August 7, 2018

Summary:  The current center of a rather strong upper high has moved westward into Arizona.  For now, highest pressures will be from the Kern County mountains southward, but if the high begins to expand towards the north and west, another heat wave will ensue beginning Wednesday and lasting through at least Friday.  Even today, temperatures will peak in the lower 100s at  most locations.  Yesterday must have felt like a cold wave as temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s.

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range between 104 and 110, backing off slightly Friday.

 

The winds aloft are still out of the west, but by Thursday and Friday will be out of the southeast.  This will allow a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture to track into central California from Arizona and northern Mexico.  For now, it appears isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada will be the main affect with occasional cloudiness over the valley floor.

 

Hurricane John will be southwest of Cabo San Lucas by tomorrow evening then will track towards the northwest, ending up roughly 800 miles west of central Baja by Saturday.  The high over the southwestern U.S. and California will deflect the moisture from John out over the ocean through at least the weekend. By Sunday, this system will be just a tropical low and will die a slow death several hundred miles to the west of San Diego.

 

A weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest this weekend.  This will cause temperatures to drop at least marginally.  For now, I’ll call it 50/50 to see if readings lower into the upper 90s, especially Sunday and Monday.

 

Next week looks moderately hot, but for now I don’t foresee any scorching heat rivaling what we will endure the next few days.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Wednesday night and again becoming hot.  Mostly clear Thursday through Friday with possibly occasional cloudiness and hot.  Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday and not quite as hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 100/65/105/69/106 Reedley 101/66/104/69/106 Dinuba 100/64/104/68/105
Porterville 101/65/106/69/107 Lindsay 101/65/105/69/106 Delano 102/68/106/71/108
Bakersfield 102/75/106/78/108 Arvin 102/70/106/75/108 Taft 102/78/106/80/107
Lamont 102/71/106/77/108 Pixley 100/66/105/69/107 Tulare 100/64/104/68/105
Woodlake 100/66/104/68/105 Hanford 102/67/105/69/107 Orosi 100/65/105/68/106

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

72/104

Saturday

Mostly clear

71/101

Sunday

Mostly clear

68/101

Monday

Mostly clear

67/101

Tuesday

Mostly clear

65/99

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 14 through August 20:  This model indicates temperatures will be a bit less hot than previously projected.  The persistent upper high will shift into the Four Corners region, possibly lowering temperatures to near to marginally above average.  There also seems to be a reasonable chance of monsoon moisture moving in from the southeast for a chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra and possibly partly cloudy skies at times over the valley floor.

 

August:  If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief.  In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures.  Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.  Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.

 

August, September, October:  Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September.  Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Friday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 15%/70%  Bakersfield: 15%/50%

Actual Humidity August 6, 2018: Delano, 84%/28%, Porterville, 77%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.15, Parlier 1.94, Blackwell 2.12, Lindcove 1.88, Arvin 2.22, Orange Cove 2.13, Porterville 1.79, Delano 1.88, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 80, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 79, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 112/54. Average Temperatures: 98/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1351 +346.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for August so far, 81.9 +2.6

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:10 am  Sunset: 7:58 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:48

Yesterday’s Weather:

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  66 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  97 /  58 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  96 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  58 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  94 /  67 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  95 /  72 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  94 /  64 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.02    62    9.18   189     4.87     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.46    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

Next report:  August 8