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Forecast

August 10, 2018/report

August 10, 2018

Summary:  Strong upper level high pressure continues to be parked over Nevada this morning.  The freezing level has come down a tad with a reading of 15,000 feet over Vandenberg Air Force Base.  The marine layer remains very shallow with a depth of only 900 feet with no sea breeze moving through the Delta. All this is a recipe for another very hot day with terrible air quality, mainly due to the Ferguson Fire.

 

The position of the high has the winds aloft out of the southeast.  Monsoonal moisture has worked its way into southern California and, to a lesser extent, central California.  This will result in periods of mid and high level clouds through the weekend.  However, today should be the hottest we’ll see in a while as a low center moves through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend.  Models indicate the high will weaken enough to move temperatures down into the upper 90s, possibly as early as tomorrow, but for sure by early next week.

 

By Tuesday, the winds aloft will be out of the southwest, ending any thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Nevada.  For Monday through Wednesday, pressures will be somewhat lower than has been the case this summer with readings only in the mid to upper 90s for a change.  This may not be the case by next weekend, though, as models are hinting at the development of another  high over the southwest, building over California and possibly pushing temperatures back over the century mark.  The monsoon may also return.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional cloudiness and hazy conditions, it will be mostly clear through the weekend.  Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night and not as hot.  mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy and warmer Thursday through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 102/66/97/65/97 Reedley 104/68/99/66/97 Dinuba 102/66/98/64/98
Porterville 104/66/99/65/99` Lindsay 104/67/99/66/99 Delano 105/70/100/67/99
Bakersfield 105/75/101/74/100 Arvin 106/72/101/70/100 Taft 104/78/101/74/99
Lamont 105/74/101/70/100 Pixley 104/67/100/66/99 Tulare 102/66/99/65/98
Woodlake 104/67/99/65/98 Hanford 104/66/100/64/99 Orosi 103/67/99/64/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

66/97

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/95`

Wednesday

Mostly clear

62/96

Thursday

Mostly clear

65/99

Friday

Mostly clear

67/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 17 through August 23:  This model indicates upper level high pressure will again dominate the southwest and California, moving temperatures above average once again.  Mostly clear skies will prevail as this model indicates the monsoon will move into Arizona and New Mexico, leaving California dry.

 

August:  If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief.  In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures.  Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.  Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.

 

August, September, October:  Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September.  Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Monday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 20%/50%

Actual Humidity August 9, 2018: Delano, 84%/21%, Porterville, 76%/18%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.08, Parlier 1.86, Blackwell 2.08, Lindcove 1.85, Arvin 2.19, Orange Cove 2.05, Porterville 1.79, Delano 1.84, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 79, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 79, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 84, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/53. Average Temperatures: 98/65

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1402 +355.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for August so far, 81.9 +2.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:13 am  Sunset: 7:55 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:42

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 103 /  64 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 106 /  70 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 106 /  61 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 103 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 104 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  61 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  M  / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 103 /  65 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1657 / 104 /  77 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 101 /  65 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.02    62    9.18   188     4.89     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   129    12.47    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  August 11