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Forecast

August 15, 2018/report

August 15, 2018

Summary:  Temperatures overall this morning are about 2 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.  The marine layer’s depth at Monterey is  now  up to 2,000 feet.  This is allowing a weak flow of marine air through the Delta and even a minimal amount of sea breeze is moving through Pacheco Pass.  It’s unclear at this time whether or not any of this modified ocean air will make it into the central or south valley.  My feeling is most locations this afternoon will end up in the upper 90s to possible the lower 100s in the warmest locations.

 

There is a weakness in the upper atmosphere west of San Diego.  This is aiding in creating a southeasterly flow over southern and central California.  A minimal amount of monsoonal moisture will  move through over the next 48 hours for possibly some mid and high level clouds over the valley floor tonight and Thursday and a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra.

 

Currently, upper level high pressure stretches from Texas to California.  This  high will shift towards the west and by this weekend will be right over California.  The position of the high will create a west/southwest flow aloft, ending any monsoonal influence.  But with the high almost right overhead, expect hot temperatures this weekend.  Even though there will be weak impulses of low pressure  moving through the Pacific Northwest from time to time, as of now it does not appear it will have any impact on central California.  Hot temperatures will continue for much of next week.  With generally a west/southwest flow aloft in the medium term, clear skies with low humidity can be expected after this weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday with possibly a few mid and high level clouds at times.  Clear skies and hot weather over the weekend and continuing through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 98/64/101/66/103 Reedley 99/65/102/67/102 Dinuba 99/63/101/66/102
Porterville 99/65/102/67/103 Lindsay 99/65/101/67/102 Delano 100/67/102/69/104
Bakersfield 100/75/102/76/104 Arvin 100/72/103/75/104 Taft 99/77/102/78/103
Lamont 100/72/102/74/104 Pixley 99/66/102/69/103 Tulare 99/64/101/67/102
Woodlake 99/64/102/67/103 Hanford 100/65/103/67/104 Orosi 99/63/101/66/102

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

68/104

Sunday

Mostly clear

70/105

Monday

Mostly clear

71/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

68/104

Wednesday

Mostly clear

66/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 21 through August 26:  This model indicates upper level high pressure will again dominate the southwest and California, moving temperatures above average once again.  Mostly clear skies will prevail as this model indicates the monsoon will move into Arizona and New Mexico, leaving California dry.

 

August:  If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief.  In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures.  Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.  Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.

 

August, September, October:  Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September.  Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Saturday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 20%/50%

Actual Humidity August 14, 2018: Delano, 77%/19%, Porterville, 75%/14%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.67, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell 2.29, Lindcove 1.79, Arvin 2.17, Orange Cove 1.97, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.82, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 79, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 109/53. Average Temperatures: 97/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1495 +378.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for August so far, 82.3 +3.2

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:17 am  Sunset: 7:49 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:35

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  62 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  98 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  62 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  98 /  65 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  99 /  75 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.02    62    9.18   187     4.90     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   129    12.48    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  August 16