August 15, 2018
Summary: Temperatures overall this morning are about 2 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The marine layer’s depth at Monterey is now up to 2,000 feet. This is allowing a weak flow of marine air through the Delta and even a minimal amount of sea breeze is moving through Pacheco Pass. It’s unclear at this time whether or not any of this modified ocean air will make it into the central or south valley. My feeling is most locations this afternoon will end up in the upper 90s to possible the lower 100s in the warmest locations.
There is a weakness in the upper atmosphere west of San Diego. This is aiding in creating a southeasterly flow over southern and central California. A minimal amount of monsoonal moisture will move through over the next 48 hours for possibly some mid and high level clouds over the valley floor tonight and Thursday and a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra.
Currently, upper level high pressure stretches from Texas to California. This high will shift towards the west and by this weekend will be right over California. The position of the high will create a west/southwest flow aloft, ending any monsoonal influence. But with the high almost right overhead, expect hot temperatures this weekend. Even though there will be weak impulses of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest from time to time, as of now it does not appear it will have any impact on central California. Hot temperatures will continue for much of next week. With generally a west/southwest flow aloft in the medium term, clear skies with low humidity can be expected after this weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday with possibly a few mid and high level clouds at times. Clear skies and hot weather over the weekend and continuing through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/64/101/66/103 | Reedley 99/65/102/67/102 | Dinuba 99/63/101/66/102 | |
| Porterville 99/65/102/67/103 | Lindsay 99/65/101/67/102 | Delano 100/67/102/69/104 | |
| Bakersfield 100/75/102/76/104 | Arvin 100/72/103/75/104 | Taft 99/77/102/78/103 | |
| Lamont 100/72/102/74/104 | Pixley 99/66/102/69/103 | Tulare 99/64/101/67/102 | |
| Woodlake 99/64/102/67/103 | Hanford 100/65/103/67/104 | Orosi 99/63/101/66/102 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 68/104 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 70/105 |
Monday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 68/104 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 66/103 |
Two Week Outlook: August 21 through August 26: This model indicates upper level high pressure will again dominate the southwest and California, moving temperatures above average once again. Mostly clear skies will prevail as this model indicates the monsoon will move into Arizona and New Mexico, leaving California dry.
August: If you were hoping for relief from this relentlessly hot summer, this model does not show a pattern that would give you that relief. In fact, upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is the dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Also, the monsoon may be more active than in most summers, so occasional thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and possibly occasional periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor. Otherwise, the usual generally dry weather will continue.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will continue to be pretty dominant over the next three months with occasional bouts of monsoonal moisture affecting the Sierra Nevada through about mid September. Overall, temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages with generally below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity August 14, 2018: Delano, 77%/19%, Porterville, 75%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.67, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell 2.29, Lindcove 1.79, Arvin 2.17, Orange Cove 1.97, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.82, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 79, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 81, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 109/53. Average Temperatures: 97/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1495 +378. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 82.3 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:17 am Sunset: 7:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 100 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 99 / 75 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 62 9.18 187 4.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.79 13.95
Next report: August 16