August 21, 2018
Summary: Finally, the break we have been looking for began last night after another hot day yesterday. Yesterday at this time, the marine layer stood at nearly 1, 800 feet. This morning, it’s jumped up all the way to 3,200 feet and is surging through the Delta and other gaps and passes along the Interstate 5 corridor. At least report, winds were gusting to 35 MPH through Pacheco Pass.
Today is one of those days where I will try to discern how much cooling will occur and where. After temperatures in the 101 to 105 degree range yesterday, I’m betting mid to upper 90s will be likely today with widespread mid 90s Wednesday through Friday.
The overall pattern shows a low over the northern Rockies extending southwestward into northern California. The high that has been cooking us recently has now shifted eastward to the Four Corners region and will arrive in west Texas Wednesday. This will set up a west to southwest flow over central California for the remainder of the week with generally clear skies with the exception of some mid and high level clouds today. Those clouds are already showing signs of moving eastward.
It appears the general pattern for the next week or so will be a trough over the Pacific Northwest with weak impulses moving in from time to time. The southwestern high no longer shows up on paper with a high over the middle of the country and a trough along the west coast. This will be pattern that is conducive for near average temperatures this week and possibly even below average later next week as the trough deepens.
Forecast: Outside of a few mid and high level clouds today, it will be mostly clear and cooler. Mostly clear tonight and on through Tuesday of next week with near average temperatures.
Short Term:
| Madera 94/58/95/58/96 | Reedley 96/60/96/60/96 | Dinuba 95/59/95/58/96 | |
| Porterville 96/59/96/59/96 | Lindsay 97/59/96/59/97 | Delano 97/63/96/63/95 | |
| Bakersfield 97/68/96/68/96 | Arvin 99/65/97/64/96 | Taft 96/71/96/67/95 | |
| Lamont 98/66/97/63/96 | Pixley 97/61/97/60/96 | Tulare 96/59/96/59/95 | |
| Woodlake 96/58/96/58/95 | Hanford 96/59/96/58/96 | Orosi 96/59/96/58/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/94 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 59/92 |
Two Week Outlook: August 28 through September 3: This model is quite different than the pattern we’ve been accustomed to this summer. It shows a decent trough of low pressure along the west coast. This may actually result in below average temperatures with conditions remaining dry as a westerly flow continues.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through tonight with locally stronger gusts. Gusts to possibly 30 MPH could be experienced along the I-5 corridor. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 15%/50%
Actual Humidity August 20, 2018: Delano, 84%/11%, Porterville, 64%/12%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.85, Parlier 1.83, Blackwell 2.09, Lindcove 1.81, Arvin 2.14, Orange Cove 2.03, Porterville 1.76, Delano 1.81, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 86, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 108/51. Average Temperatures: 96/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1609 +414
. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 82.7 +4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:22 am Sunset: 7:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 103 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 101 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 103 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 101 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 187 4.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.80 13.95
Next report: August 22