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Forecast

August 23, 2018/report

August 23, 2018

Summary:  The marine layer remains at around 2,900 feet deep this morning and continues to allow breezes to move through the Delta and other gaps and passes along the Coast Range.  Currently, the flow is fairly weak with winds at Travis Air Force Base being out of the southwest at 15 and Pacheco Pass west at 17.  Visible satellite imagery this morning shows coastal low clouds extending inland almost to the last range separating the coastal mountains from the valley.  The freezing level is down a bit this  morning and stands at 15,200 feet.  Overall, the pattern is a low center over Montana with a lingering trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  The trough will weaken somewhat Friday and Saturday, possibly allowing for minor warming.  This will be short lived, however, as another and stronger trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and down into northern and central California Sunday through Tuesday of  next week.

 

Temperature falls aren’t quite as dramatic this morning but still indicate the possibility of sub 90 degree weather Monday and Tuesday with below average temperatures continuing for much of next week as the trough lingers along the west coast.

 

The winds aloft will continue to generally be out of the west which this time of year is very dry.  Expect clear skies for the foreseeable future.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Monday.  Clear skies will continue Monday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 93/58/93/58/95 Reedley 95/59/95/58/95 Dinuba 93/57/94/59/95
Porterville 95/59/95/58/96 Lindsay 94/57/94/57/95 Delano 95/63/95/62/96
Bakersfield 95/65/94/65/95 Arvin 96/63/95/61/95 Taft 94/67/94/66/94
Lamont 95/63/94/63/96 Pixley 95/60/95/61/96 Tulare 94/58/94/59/95
Woodlake 94/59/94/58/95 Hanford 94/59/94/58/96 Orosi 94/57/94/58/95

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

58/94

Monday

Mostly clear

56/88

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/90

Wednesday

Mostly clear

60/92

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/94

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 28 through September 3:  This model is quite different than the pattern we’ve been accustomed to this summer.  It shows a decent trough of low pressure along the west coast.  This may actually result in below average temperatures with conditions remaining dry as a westerly flow continues.

 

September:  This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California.  This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains.  With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.

 

September, October, November:  The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California.  October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine.  At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Sunday with locally stronger gusts to near 25 MPH possible, mainly along the I-5 corridor.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/75%  Bakersfield: 20%/55%

Actual Humidity August 22, 2018: Delano, 85%/28%, Porterville, 92%/24%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.91, Parlier 1.78, Blackwell 2.14, Lindcove 1.78, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove 1.96, Porterville 1.70, Delano 1.78, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 86, Delano 80, Madera Two NA

 

Record Temperatures: 112/51. Average Temperatures: 96/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1637  +416

.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for August so far, 82.4 +3.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:24 am  Sunset: 7:38 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:15

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  60 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  94 /  61 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  94 /  60 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  93 /  65 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  91 /  60 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  93 /  60 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1637 /  93 /  68 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  89 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   111     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.37     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.02    61    9.18   186     4.94     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   129    12.51    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.80    13.95

 

Next report:  August 24