August 28, 2018
Summary: The marine layer along the coast has deepened further and is all the way up to 3,200 feet this morning. Satellite imagery shows coastal low fog has moved inland as far as the last mountain range separating the San Joaquin Valley from the coast. Low clouds have moved through the Delta and into the lower Sacramento Valley. Winds at Pacheco Pass this morning are out of the west, sustained at 25 MPH, gusting to 35. Add to that the sea breeze is having no problem moving through other gaps and passes and into the valley. Temperatures are already beginning to come down as compared to yesterday. With a strong push of marine air continuing, locations from especially Fresno County northward may not reach the 90 degree mark. in the south valley, if readings do reach 90, it won’t be by much.
The overall pattern indicates a trough of low pressure stretches from western Canada southward into the Great Basin, thus the strong onshore flow. Upper level high pressure stretches from the southeast U.S. to off of the Baja, California coast. A westerly flow is evident in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Embedded within this flow are some mid and high level clouds which are moving on shore from the Tehachapi Mountains southward. Some of these clouds may affect the south valley tonight and Wednesday, however the sky will remain mostly clear with below average temperatures.
Another trough will move inland Thursday and Friday, maintaining pleasant late August temperatures for the valley. We should see at least marginal warming over the weekend as that high to our south tries to struggle northward.
Models for next week are inconsistent. Some, however, are leaning towards a strong upper high during the late part of next week which could return hot weather to central California. This pattern could also move at least a marginal amount of monsoonal moisture into the region, however it’s entirely possible most of this moisture will remain east of the Sierra Nevada, leaving central California unscathed.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday with possible occasional high clouds in the south valley tonight and Wednesday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/57/88/58/91 | Reedley 89/59/90/59/91 | Dinuba 88/57/89/58/90 | |
| Portervillle 89/57/90/58/90 | Lindsay 89/58/90/59/91 | Delano 90/61/91/60/91 | |
| Bakersfield 90/64/91/65/91 | Arvin 91/61/92/62/92 | Taft 89/67/91/66/91 | |
| Lamont 90/63/91/63/92 | Pixley 89/59/90/59/90 | Tulare 88/57/89/58/90 | |
| Woodlake 89/58/89/59/90 | Hanford 89/59/90/59/91 | Orosi 88/57/89/58/90 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/96 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 61/95 |
Monday
Mostly clear 62/95 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/96 |
Two Week Outlook: September 4 through September 10: A weak trough of low pressure will be over and off the Pacific coast during this time frame while upper level high pressure covers the Desert Southwest and possibly southern California. This pattern would be conducive for marginally above average temperatures and for now it appears the monsoon will be far enough to the east to keep precipitation out of the forecast.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH through Friday. There will be occasional periods of locally gusty winds to near 25 MPH or more along the Interstate 5 corridor and locally elsewhere.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity August 27, 2018: Delano, 68%/22%, Porterville, 76%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.73, Parlier 1.62, Blackwell 2.02, Lindcove 1.62, Arvin 1.93, Orange Cove 1.79, Porterville 1.50, Delano 1.62, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 79, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 84, Delano 77, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 109/52. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1700 +417
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 81.4 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.60. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.43. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 7:31 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 92 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1611 / 94 / 68 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.92 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 185 4.96 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.80 13.95
Next report: August 29