August 29, 2018
Summary: The overall pattern has changed little over the past 24 hours. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure stretches all the way from the southeast U.S. to northern Baja. A trough of low pressure stretches from western Canada southward into the eastern Great Basin. This has created a west/southwest flow aloft which will maintain mostly clear skies, however, satellite imagery indicates there are some mid and high level clouds embedded within this flow which will be visible from time to time over the next few days. Generally speaking, though, skies will remain clear.
At the surface, a strong onshore flow continues. At last report, winds at Pacheco Pass were sustained out of the west at 20 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH. The marine layer itself was more than 3,500 feet deep, meaning it will have no problems sliding over the coastal mountains and into the valley. Upper 80s to lower 90s are a good bet for today and tomorrow. From Friday through Sunday, the high to our south will bulge northward, temporarily shutting down the marine machine and allowing temperatures to move into at least the mid 90s.
By the middle of next week, upper level high pressure may develop right over California, pushing temperatures into possibly the upper 90s. this change could also briefly turn the winds aloft out of the southeast which could, in theory, move monsoonal moisture into the area. However, the majority of the models this morning indicate this moisture will move northward too far to the east to even effect the Sierra Nevada.
The weather beyond the latter part of next week is inconclusive on modeling projections. Some predict a high will dominate the west with above average temperatures while others point to the status quo with at least average temperatures if not a tad below. Also, there is one model that places an upper low over northern California Wednesday. Currently that’s the odd model out, so we can expect dry weather indefinitely.
Forecast: Outside of occasional mid and high level clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear with occasional high clouds Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 89/58/90/59/92 | Reedley 90/58/91/59/92 | Dinuba 88/57/89/58/91 | |
| Porterville 91/56/91/57/92 | Lindsay 90/57/91/59/91 | Delano 91/61/91/62/93 | |
| Bakersfield 90/64/91/65/93 | Arvin 92/61/92/62/93 | Taft 90/67/91/67/92 | |
| Lamont 91/63/91/63/93 | Pixley 90/59/91/60/92 | Tulare 89/57/90/59/92 | |
| Woodlake 90/57/91/58/92 | Hanford 90/57/91/58/91 | Orosi 89/57/90/58/91 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 62/96 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 62/96 |
Monday
Mostly clear 63/98 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 61/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 61/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 5 through September 11: A weak trough of low pressure will be over and off the Pacific coast during this time frame while upper level high pressure covers the Desert Southwest and possibly southern California. This pattern would be conducive for marginally above average temperatures and for now it appears the monsoon will be far enough to the east to keep precipitation out of the forecast.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH through Friday. There will be occasional periods of locally gusty winds to near 25 MPH or more along the Interstate 5 corridor and locally elsewhere. Winds Saturday will decrease to around 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity August 28, 2018: Delano, 81%/32%, Porterville, 80%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.69, Parlier 1.60, Blackwell 1.94, Lindcove 1.59, Arvin 1.88, Orange Cove 1.76, Porterville 1.47, Delano 1.59, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 79, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 84, Delano 77,
Record Temperatures: 109/52. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1711 +416
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far: 81.3 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.60. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.43. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 7:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 88 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 185 4.97 5.18
SALINAS T 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.81 13.95
Next report: August 30