August 31, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure has drifted from Baja to off the northern Baja peninsula. In the meantime, a weak trough continues to reside over the Pacific Northwest. There was almost a touch of fall in the air yesterday as mid to upper 80s were widespread due to a northwest flow aloft and a very deep marine layer. Today will be similar with pleasant temperatures before late summer type weather returns over the weekend. Already this morning, there are little signs of a change in pattern. The marine layer has backed off from 3,500 feet yesterday to about 2,000 feet this morning. That’s still deep enough for some modified sea breeze to move into the valley. At last report, winds at Pacheco Pass were out of the west, sustained at 21 MPH. this will end later today as the high off the northern Baja coast begins to move northward along the coast. As a result, pressures aloft will rise over central California, shutting down the marine machine and allowing temperatures to reach average values by Sunday and somewhat above average temperatures will be in place for Monday through Friday of next week.
Models show a trough of low pressure beginning to develop over the Pacific Northwest and possibly down into northern and central California about a week from Monday. That will be our next chance at lower temperatures again. For much of next week, the winds aloft will be out of the west/southwest for a continuation of dry weather. This pattern will also keep the monsoon well to the south and east of California, so even the Sierra Nevada will be cloud free, other than a few buildups in the afternoons and early evenings.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday with possible occasional high clouds. Mostly clear skies Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/58/93/60/95 | Reedley 86/58/93/61/96 | Dinuba 85/57/91/61/94 | |
| Porterville 86/58/93/60/96 | Lindsay 87/57/92/59/95 | Delano 86/61/93/63/97 | |
| Bakersfield 85/64/93/68/97 | Arvin 87/62/93/66/97 | Taft 86/68/93/70/96 | |
| Lamont 86/64/93/66/96 | Pixley 87/59/93/61/95 | Tulare 85/58/92/60/94 | |
| Woodlake 86/59/92/61/95 | Hanford 85/58/92/62/96 | Orosi 87/58/93/60/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 64/97 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 65/98 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 64/98 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/97 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/96 |
Two Week Outlook: September 7 through September 13: A weak trough of low pressure will be over and off the Pacific coast during this time frame while upper level high pressure covers the Desert Southwest and possibly southern California. This pattern would be conducive for marginally above average temperatures and for now it appears the monsoon will be far enough to the east to keep precipitation out of the forecast.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Monday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity August 30, 2018: Delano, 94%/43%, Porterville, 88%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.60, Parlier 1.54, Blackwell 1.85, Lindcove 1.50, Arvin 1.81, Orange Cove 1.70, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.54, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 78, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 77, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 107/50. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1732 +413
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far: 80.9 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.60. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.43. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 7:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
AE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 87 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 85 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 185 4.97 5.18
SALINAS T 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.81 13.95
Next report: September 1