September 1, 2018
Summary: yesterday was the mildest day we will see for a while as subtle changes continue to unfold. The freezing level has moved up to 16,100 feet, up from 4,900 feet yesterday at this time. The marine layer continues to slowly shrink. As of last report, the marine layer was 1,900 feet at Monterey. Winds in the Delta at Travis Air Force Base were southwest at just 11 MPH, indicating the marine machine is shutting down. Temperatures will move back into the low to possibly mid 90s this afternoon then will climb into the mid 90s to near 100 Sunday and Monday.
The overall weather pattern shows an upper level high off the southern California coast beginning to slowly expand towards the north and northeast. This will bring in warmer air aloft along with higher pressure aloft contributing to the warming trend. Hottest locations Monday through Wednesday of next week will at least push the century mark. I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a few locations eclipse the century mark by a degree or two.
Once we get into the late part of next week, the high will flatten out, marginally lowering pressures aloft as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Next weekend, readings should fall back into at least the low to mid 90s which is a seasonal level for this time of year.
The flow aloft during this entire period will either be out of the west or northwest. Satellite imagery shows a few high clouds embedded within this flow which will be visible from time to time, but overall skies will remain mostly clear.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, skies will be clear through Tuesday with a warming trend. Mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/60/97/63/98 | Reedley 92/61/96/63/99 | Dinuba 92/60/95/63/98 | |
| Porterville 93/61/97/63/99 | Lindsay 92/59/97/63/99 | Delano 92/64/97/66/100 | |
| Bakersfield 91/68/97/70/99 | Arvin 92/65/97/68/100 | Taft 92/71/97/74/100 | |
| Lamont 93/66/97/69/100 | Pixley 92/62/97/64/99 | Tulare 91/59/95/64/98 | |
| Woodlake 92/59/96/63/98 | Hanford 92/60/97/65/100 | Orosi 92/60/96/64/98 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 65/99 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 66/100 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 64/97 |
Friday
Mostly clear 62/96 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 8 through September 14: A weak trough of low pressure will be over and off the Pacific coast during this time frame while upper level high pressure covers the Desert Southwest and possibly southern California. This pattern would be conducive for marginally above average temperatures and for now it appears the monsoon will be far enough to the east to keep precipitation out of the forecast.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Tuesday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/60%
Actual Humidity August 31, 2018: Delano, 94%/43%, Porterville, 88%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.60, Parlier 1.54, Blackwell 1.81, Lindcove 1.49, Arvin 1.79, Orange Cove 1.69, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.53, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1742 +411
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far: 80.7 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.60. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.44. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 7:26 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 91 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 87 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 87 / 65 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.77 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 122 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 184 4.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.81 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, September 4