September 4, 2018
Summary: Today will be somewhat tricky when it comes to temperature forecasting. The marine layer is 1,900 feet deep, which is not horribly high. However, there is sea breeze moving through the Delta as winds are gusting to 29 MPH and gusting to 24 MPH at Pacheco Pass. The question of the day is whether a very weak upper low over Nevada will be able to tug that sea breeze further inland. For now, it appears maybe Merced County northward could get some minor cooling, but from Fresno County south, the status quo is likely, perhaps even a degree or two warmer.
Overall, a high pressure system is aloft off the southern California coast with the upper winds continuing out of the northwest along the eastern side of the high. By Friday, the high center will be just off shore then by the weekend it will be elongated from off shore eastward to the Four Corners area. Other than a few isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra today and possibly tomorrow due to the upper low just to our east, skies will remain clear with above average temperatures. In fact, from today through the weekend and possibly longer, upper 90s will be the norm with hottest locations possibly in the lower triple digits. I do look for temperatures to remain above average through at least the middle of next week.
At that point, models diverge somewhat. Some indicate the possibility of a trough extending from the Pacific Northwest down into California about Thursday or Friday of next week. If this occurs, it would result in a cooling trend. One thing is for sure both short and medium range, no precipitation will occur in the valley.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 97/63/98/64/98 | Reedley 99/64/99/65/98 | Dinuba 98/63/99/64/97 | |
| Porterville 100/64/100/65/99 | Lindsay 99/64/99/65/99 | Delano 100/66/100/66/99 | |
| Bakersfield 101/71/100/71/98 | Arvin 101/69/101/70/99 | Taft 100/75/100/75/99 | |
| Lamont 101/69/100/69/100 | Pixley 99/64/100/65/98 | Tulare 98/63/99/64/98 | |
| Woodlake 99/64/100/64/98 | Hanford 100/63/100/64/99 | Orosi 98/63/99/64/98 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 64/99 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 63/98 |
Monday
Mostly clear 63/99 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 62/98 |
Two Week Outlook: September 11 through September 17: This model continues the balancing act between a trough of low pressure over and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a continuation of upper level high pressure over the southwest U.S. For now, it appears temperatures will remain near to marginally above average with little to no chance of precipitation.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Friday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity September 3, 2018: Delano, 86%/26%, Porterville, 83%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.56, Parlier 1.52, Blackwell 1.69, Lindcove 1.45, Arvin 1.71, Orange Cove 1.67, Porterville 1.38, Delano 1.50, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 77, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 94/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1783 +419
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for September so far: ““““““““““`78.7 +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.60. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.44. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 7:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 98 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 98 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 98 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 99 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 97 / 73 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 123 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 184 4.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.16 129 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.63 135 13.82 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, September 5