September 5, 2018
Summary: The pattern has changed very little over the past 24 hours. Along the coast, the marine layer continues to level off at 1,900 feet while the freezing level has come down a little bit and stands at 14,400 feet. There is some leakage of marine air into the valley via the Delta, however it is weak and the difference in pressure between the coast and the interior is not sufficient to move that modified sea breeze into our region. So, temperatures will remain in the upper 90s with a few lower 100s in the hottest locations, mainly in Kern County.
Upper level high pressure remains off the southern California coast with central California on its eastern flank. There is a very weak low over the Great Basin which should trigger a few thunderstorms over the high Sierra again this afternoon.
The next major change in the general pattern will begin Sunday and Monday of next week. The high will begin to flatten out over the Pacific Northwest over the weekend as a new trough develops. By the middle of next week, this trough will have dug deep into northern and central California, creating an on shore flow which should efficiently move marine air down the valley as early as Tuesday. By Wednesday and beyond, temperatures will have lowered to near seasonal averages and could drop maybe a degree or two below average by the end of the week. For now, there continues to be no chance of moisture moving up from the monsoon or from tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. The forecast remains dry indefinitely.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/64/99/65/99 | Reedley 99/64/100/65/100 | Dinuba 98/63/98/64/99 | |
| Porterville 100/64/100/65/100 | Lindsay 99/64/100/65/100 | Delano 99/67/100/67/100 | |
| Bakersfield 101/72/100/72/101 | Arvin 101/69/101/70/101 | Taft 99/74/99/74/98 | |
| Lamont 101/69/101/70/100 | Pixley 100/64/100/65/100 | Tulare 98/63/99/63/99 | |
| Woodlake 99/64/99/64/99 | Hanford 100/65/100/64/100 | Orosi 99/63/99/64/98 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 65/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 65/100 |
Monday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 60/96 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 11 through September 17: This model continues the balancing act between a trough of low pressure over and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a continuation of upper level high pressure over the southwest U.S. For now, it appears temperatures will remain near to marginally above average with little to no chance of precipitation.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Saturday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity September 4, 2018: Delano, 85%/23%, Porterville, 82%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.57, Parlier 1.52, Blackwell 1.68, Lindcove 1.44, Arvin 1.72, Orange Cove 1.69, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.54, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 105/47. Average Temperatures: 94/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1798 +423
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 78.9 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.61. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.45. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 am Sunset: 7:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 70 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 98 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 100 / 73 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 99 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 99 / 74 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 123 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 184 4.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.16 129 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.63 135 13.82 13.95
Next report: Thursday, September 6