September 7, 2018
Summary: A strong upper level high is still sitting off the southern California coast. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a slight eastward shift, meaning pressures will marginally rise above central California today. The marine layer has shrunk further as a result with a depth of 1,100 feet. Almost no marine air is reaching the Delta. Winds at Travis Air Force Base were out of the southwest at only 4 MPH. most mountain locations above 4,000 feet are a degree or two warmer this morning. Today, the high will reach its pinnacle then will slowly begin to flatten out, especially Sunday and Monday. As it does, it will marginally weaken the high over central California. The flow aloft is currently out of the northwest which eventually will be out of the west as the high is suppressed further south.
In the meantime, a developing low west of Washington state will develop a trough down into northern California by Wednesday. This will be the kicker of cooler weather as a stronger and stronger on shore flow develops, allowing marine air to surge inland and lower temperatures possibly to even below the 90 degree mark by Thursday and Friday of next week. Most models keep this trough in place through next weekend as the main high center will be over the Midwestern U.S. There is no chance of any precipitation with a westerly flow as the monsoon will be completely cut off and that low over the Pacific Northwest will threaten showers for western Washington and Oregon. There will be a slight chance of showers down into northwest California. Skies will remain generally clear over central California with reasonably pleasant temperatures in the longer term.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/63/99/62/96 | Reedley 100/63/99/62/96 | Dinuba 99/62/98/61/95 | |
| Porterville 99/62/99/61/96 | Lindsay 100/62/99/61/95 | Delano 101/65/100/63/97 | |
| Bakersfield 100/70/99/68/97 | Arvin 101/69/100/67/97 | Taft 99/73/98/71/97 | |
| Lamont 101/67/100/66/97 | Pixley 100/62/99/61/96 | Tulare 99/62/98/61/95 | |
| Woodlake 99/61/98/60/95 | Hanford 100/63/99/60/95 | Orosi 100/62/99/61/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 60/96 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Friday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Two Week Outlook: September 14 through September 20: For a change, strong upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is nowhere to be found on this model. Instead, a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and northern California is the main player. Temperatures under this regime will average near to possibly blow average levels with dry conditions continuing.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Monday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity September 6, 2018: Delano, 85%/24%, Porterville, 79%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.65, Parlier 1.55, Blackwell 1.75, Lindcove 1.50, Arvin 1.75, Orange Cove 1.75, Porterville 1.43, Delano 1.54, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 84, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 108/50. Average Temperatures: 93/61
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1830 +433–
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.6 +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.61. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.45. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 7:17 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 98 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.79 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.94 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 122 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 62 9.18 184 5.00 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.16 129 12.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.69 135 13.82 13.95
Next report: Saturday, September 8