September 13, 2018
Summary: There is definitely a touch of fall in the air this morning. Most locations are from 4 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday morning at this time. A few locations dipped into the mid to upper 40s as of 6:00am. Lindcove reported 47 and Ivanhoe 48. Most other locations were in the low to mid 50s. a huge trough of low pressure extends from northern Canada, southwestward to off northern and central California. Freezing levels over the Pacific Northwest have dropped to around 7,000 feet as far south as Medford, Oregon and even the sounding over Oakland overnight was fairly low as 12,100 feet.
At the surface, a strong onshore flow is underway with a cooler air mass now settling into the region. The combination of cooler air aloft and that onshore flow will result in below average temperatures for several days. Mid 80s as an average would be a good bet this afternoon and each afternoon through at least Monday.
The next change will not occur until after Wednesday. Medium range models show the eastern Pacific high beginning to build in from the west about Thursday with temperatures rebounding and once again ending up above average, putting us right back into the 90s. so, it looks like we have 5 to 6 days of early October type weather to enjoy before high pressure once again takes over.
The flow aloft through the entire period will be generally out of the southwest, maintaining dry conditions in the short and medium term.
Forecast: Clear and cooler through Sunday. Mostly clear Monday through Thursday with a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/50/84/51/85 | Reedley 85/51/85/51/85 | Dinuba 83/49/84/50/84 | |
| Porterville 85/50/85/51/85 | Lindsay 84/49/85/51/84 | Delano 85/54/85/53/84 | |
| Bakersfield 86/57/85/59/86 | Arvin 87/52/85/53/86 | Taft 85/60/85/60/86 | |
| Lamont 86/55/85/57/86 | Pixley 84/51/85/52/85 | Tulare 84/51/84/52/84 | |
| Woodlake 85/49/85/50/84 | Hanford 85/52/85/53/86 | Orosi 84/49/85/50/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 52/86 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 55/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 20 through September 26: A flat zone of upper level high pressure will dominate California and off shore with mainly a westerly flow moving into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern is not really conducive for above or below average temperatures but this time of year continues to be dry.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds, especially during the afternoons and evenings, will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Saturday with locally stronger gusts. The exception will be portions of the west side, mainly along the I-5 corridor where gusts in excess of 30 MPH cannot be ruled out.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the low 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/75% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity September 12, 2018: Delano, 82%/17%, Porterville, 83%/13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.71, Parlier 1.51, Blackwell 1.67, Lindcove 1.50, Arvin 1.74, Orange Cove 1.72, Porterville 1.40, Delano 1.54, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 77, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 106/48. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1909 +452
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 78.8 +3.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.63. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.46. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 7:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 91 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 92 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 91 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 90 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.83 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.03 130 12.29 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.30 152 11.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.16 112 9.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 122 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 183 5.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 130 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 137 13.84 13.95
Next report: Friday, September 14