September 14, 2018
Summary: It is another cool morning throughout the valley as overnight lows are bottoming out anywhere from the mid 40s to the lower 50s with mid to upper 50s in the urban areas. We now have a massive trough of low pressure extending from northern Canada southwestward to off the northern and central California coast. This is creating a southwest flow aloft. Embedded on the far southern rim of the trough is a streak of mid and high level clouds which are visible mainly from Madera County northward. The moving satellite imagery this morning indicates these clouds are not moving any further south, so mostly clear skies will prevail today through the weekend with below average temperatures.
The surface flow is rather robust and is moving on shore, aiding in the early October like weather we’re enjoying. Occasionally, a weak impulse of low pressure will move out of the trough and through northern California. Each time this occurs, the onshore flow will briefly become stronger. For now it appears the next of these will arrive Saturday with another on Monday night or Tuesday.
Models which yesterday were indicating upper level high pressure would build eastward into California no longer point to that possibility. Now they’re indicating the possibility of another trough following a similar pattern, though this one looks weaker. If all goes as planned, however, temperatures through at least Thursday will remain below the 90 degree mark with near 90 next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday with the exception of some high clouds from Madera County northward. Mostly clear Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/51/85/50/84 | Reedley 85/51/84/50/84 | Dinuba 84/49/84/50/83 | |
| Porterville 85/50/85/49/84 | Lindsay 84/48/85/49/84 | Delano 86/53/85/53/85 | |
| Bakersfield 86/58/86/57/85` | Arvin 86/54/86/53/85 | Taft 85/62/85/61/85 | |
| Lamont 86/55/85/54/84 | Pixley 85/52/85/52/83 | Tulare 84/50/84/51/83 | |
| Woodlake 85/48/85/49/84 | Hanford 85/52/85/51/83 | Orosi 84/48/85/49/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 51/85 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/87 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/88 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 51/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Two Week Outlook: September 20 through September 26: A flat zone of upper level high pressure will dominate California and off shore with mainly a westerly flow moving into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern is not really conducive for above or below average temperatures but this time of year continues to be dry.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds, especially during the afternoons and evenings, will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Monday with locally stronger gusts. The exception will be portions of the west side, mainly along the I-5 corridor where gusts in excess of 25 MPH cannot be ruled out.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity September 13, 2018: Delano, 89%/23%, Porterville, 81%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.49, Blackwell 1.63, Lindcove 1.49, Arvin 1.72, Orange Cove 1.69, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.52, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 82, Delano 75,
Record Temperatures: 106/47. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1912 +446
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 78.0 +2.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.64. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.46. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 7:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:26
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 157 13.84 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.03 130 12.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.30 152 11.37 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.16 112 9.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 8.33 130 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 182 5.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 130 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 137 13.85 13.95
Next report: Saturday, September 15