September 15, 2018
Summary: A broad trough of low pressure extends from northern Canada southwestward to off the central California coast. There are weak waves of low pressure moving through the trough, one of which is moving through central California at this hour. There’s no active weather associated with this system, but it is being marked by some mid and high level clouds, mainly along the Sierra Nevada where upsloping is occurring. This system is also strengthening the onshore flow as marine air is currently gushing into the valley. Winds at last report at Pacheco Pass were sustained at 30 MPH with marine air also spilling through Cottonwood Pass and the Delta. Temperatures will only top out in the low to mid 80s over the next couple of days. This trough will dominate our weather through at least the middle of next week with below average temperatures being the main result. The flow aloft wrapping around the bottom side of the trough is out of the southwest into central California which will continue resulting in dry conditions indefinitely.
Models do indicate the trough will migrate further north beginning about Thursday of next week, possibly allowing temperatures to rise back into the low to mid 90s by Friday or Saturday.
Long term trends show dry weather continuing, although the two week model is indicating another round of below average temperatures beginning about the 23rd.
Forecast: Outside of some mid and high level clouds today north of Kern County, it will be mostly clear and mild. Mostly clear tonight through Tuesday. Skies will remain mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/51/84/51/85 | Reedley 85/51/84/51/86 | Dinuba 83/50/84/51/84 | |
| Porterville 85/50/84/51/86 | Lindsay 85/49/84/50/86 | Delano 85/54/84/54/86 | |
| Bakersfield 84/58/84/58/87 | Arvin 86/55/85/55/87 | Taft 85/59/84/59/87 | |
| Lamont 86/55/84/56/86 | Pixley 85/52/84/52/86 | Tulare 84/51/84/52/85 | |
| Woodlake 83/49/84/50/84 | Hanford 84/51/84/52/86 | Orosi 84/50/84/51/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/86 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/87 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 55/90 |
Friday
Mostly clear 56/92 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 57/92 |
Two Week Outlook: September 22 through September 28: This model shows another trough of low pressure developing along the west coast. It poses little, if any, chance of precipitation, but it will increase the onshore surface flow and lower temperatures aloft for another possible round of marginally below average temperatures.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds, especially during the afternoons and evenings, will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Tuesday with locally stronger gusts. The exception will be portions of the west side, mainly along the I-5 corridor where gusts in excess of 25 MPH cannot be ruled out.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/65%
Actual Humidity September 14, 2018: Delano, 89%/23%, Porterville, 81%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.49, Blackwell 1.63, Lindcove 1.49, Arvin 1.72, Orange Cove 1.69, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.52, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 76, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 82, Delano 75,
Record Temperatures: 104/45. Average Temperatures: 91/59
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1919 +444
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 77.5 +2.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.65. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.46. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 7:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1640 / 86 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 157 13.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.03 130 12.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.30 152 11.38 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.16 112 9.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 8.33 130 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 182 5.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 130 12.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.60 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 137 13.85 13.95
Next report: Monday, September 17