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Forecast

September 28, 2018/rain update

September 28, 2018

Summary:  The major change in our pattern we’ve been discussing recently is well underway.  The first precursors of a major cooling trend are in the form of a marine layer that continues to rise, standing at 2,500 feet at Monterey, and a sea breeze gushing through the Delta.  Winds at Travis Air Force Base are now sustained at 22, gusting to 30 MPH.  through Pacheco Pass, winds are gusting into the mid 20s where the temperature has plummeted to just 70 degrees.  Elsewhere in the valley, readings are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than 24  hours ago.  Temperatures are still approaching the mid 90s in the south valley, but as of 1:00pm, it was only 77 at Stockton which is receiving a good push of modified sea breeze.

 

The high clouds overhead this afternoon are associated with a low chugging northeastward towards the northern California coast.  This low will move inland late tonight and Saturday with cooler air aloft and a continuation of a strong onshore flow.  Temperatures will only warm into the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

 

In the meantime, a second and much more dynamic low pressure system is racing out of the Gulf of Alaska.  It will move into northern and central California Tuesday.  Models, like this morning, are indicating there’s a decent moisture field wrapping around this low for a good chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms anytime from later Monday night through roughly midday Wednesday.

 

To our south, we are still keeping a close watch on Hurricane Rosa.  Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very well defined and large eye wall with this hurricane which is a cat 4.  This megastorm is now moving towards the northwest and will veer towards the north/northeast during the second half of the weekend, moving across the northern Baja peninsula Monday night.  The latest models are keeping the moisture from Rosa just south of the growing area with a small chance of precipitation progressing as far north as the Kern County deserts.  Over the Imperial Valley and western Arizona, heavy amounts of precipitation are expected with, no doubt, some flash flooding.  Still, this is something we will have to keep a close eye on.

 

As far as potential rainfall amounts from Monday night through Wednesday morning, .10 to .25 could occur with amounts varying widely due to the showery nature of the precipitation.  Models are also showing the chance for thunderstorms is very low as it appears the coldest pool of air will be over northern California.  Believe it or not, there will be snow in the high Sierra, possibly as much as 4 to 8 inches, generally above 8,000 feet.

 

Wednesday night and beyond look dry, although we may see another hurricane move up the Baja coast about a week from this coming Sunday.  This far out, it’s just a matter for speculation.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday with occasional periods of high clouds.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.  Mostly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday morning with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon.  Becoming partly cloudy Wednesday night.   Mostly clear and warmer Thursday and Friday.

 

Short Term:  Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 50s north of Kern County and the upper 50s to the lower 60s in Kern County.  Highs over the weekend will climb only into the low to mid 80s with lows Saturday night ranging in the 50s.                                                                                     

 

Next report:  Saturday morning, September 29