October 1, 2018
Summary: Tropical storm Rosa is centered just off the north/central Baja coastline and will cross northern and central Baja about midday today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 MPH so once it crosses the peninsula the storm will be shredded with copious amounts of moisture moving into the Desert Southwest. Already from Rosa, more than 2 inches of precipitation have fallen over southwest Arizona. The cloud shield from this former hurricane has progressed as far north as eastern Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.
Meanwhile, low pressure will be approaching the central coast Tuesday. The chance of precipitation have been pushed back a bit as the system has slowed down. There are differences on models this morning on how this system will act. Some models suggest this system could track southward further off shore, reducing the chance of a fairly significant precipitation event. That line of demarcation I discussed yesterday has vanished on this morning’s models so it appears the best chance of rain will be Tuesday through Wednesday morning with a smaller chance of showers Wednesday afternoon and night.
The low center will move into southern California Thursday and will open up into a trough. Precipitation amounts will vary a great deal, as you might anticipate. A tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible. For now, thunderstorms appear to be unlikely so that would reduce the chance of heavier precipitation. Rain will end by Thursday as the trough slides into the interior western United States. Interestingly enough, that trough will remain over the interior west, generating a northerly flow over California this weekend and into next week. Temperatures, as a result, will be below average. One model is showing a tropical storm actually moving into central and southern California about the twelfth of October. This far out, however, the chances of that occurring appear slight. It is, though, the second day in a row this has popped up on this model.
Forecast: partly cloudy through tonight. Mostly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night with a chance of showers Tuesday morning and a greater risk Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A smaller chance of showers Wednesday night. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/61/80/60/77 | Reedley 88/61/81/63/77 | Dinuba 86/59/80/62/77 | |
| Porterville 88/62/82/63/78 | Lindsay 88/59/82/63/77 | Delano 87/63/81/64/78 | |
| Bakersfield 88/67/82/66/76 | Taft 88/68/82/64/78 | Arvin 89/65/84/65/79 | |
| Lamont 89/64/83/64/79 | Pixley 87/62/81/60/78 | Tulare 86/59/81/61/77 | |
| Woodlake 87/59/82/62/77 | Hanford 87/62/81/63/77 | Orosi 87/60/81/62/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 56/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 54/80 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 51/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 8 through October 14: This model is showing a significant trough of low pressure over the western states and is also giving southern California at least a small chance of precipitation during this time frame. There will only be a minimal chance of rain this far north. This model would result in below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH today and tonight then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Tuesday and Tuesday night with local gusts to 25. Winds Wednesday will be generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range with locally stronger gusts, decreasing Wednesday night with winds generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range Thursday.
Rain: Tropical Storm Rosa and its center of circulation will pass over the north/central Baja coastline later today. Precipitation will spread as far north as the Imperial Valley with the richest moisture over Baja.
In the meantime, the eastern Pacific low will be nearing the coastline Tuesday. The amount and chance of precipitation will depend upon where the center of circulation ends up. If it hugs the coastline late Tuesday and Wednesday, precipitation will become likely over the entire valley. If it stays 200 to 300 miles off shore, the chance of precipitation would be lower with lighter amounts of precip. Satellite imagery indicates the eastern side of this storm is fairly impressive. This indicates that if this swath of moisture works its way inland, decent amounts of precipitation would be likely. The best chance of rain will begin Tuesday with the risk factor going up the deeper in the day we progress. Rain will become likely Tuesday night and Wednesday with a smaller chance Wednesday night and dry weather returning Thursday.
Amounts of rain will average probably between .10 and .25 with locally higher amounts possible with lighter amounts if this storm ends up too far off shore.
Dry weather will return Thursday through the weekend and next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 35%/60%
Actual Humidity September 30, 2018: Delano, 94%/38%, Porterville, 91%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.33, Parlier NA, Blackwell 1.44, Lindcove 1.18, Arvin 1.41, Orange Cove 1.30, Porterville 1.08, Delano 1.19, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 82, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 73, Porterville 79, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2057 +469
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 75.3 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.77. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.52. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 6:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 81 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 66 21.79 155 14.06 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 62 16.93 129 13.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 56 16.05 128 12.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 60 14.26 119 12.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.36 151 11.50 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.21 111 10.10 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 61 8.34 129 6.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 60 9.18 178 5.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 129 12.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 75 16.17 127 12.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 136 13.95 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 1/pm