October 4, 2018
Summary: Strong thunderstorms developed over parts of the valley yesterday afternoon and through the overnight hours. Jasmine, for example, recorded an inch of rain in just over an hour, Arvin recorded .84, and Orange Cove .28. Numerous locations picked up less than a tenth of an inch so it literally was determined by what cloud you were under as far as rainfall goes.
There is a great deal of moisture left over from the exiting storm which has currently moved into the Great Basin. Isolated showers are still possible today, especially over the mountains where thunderstorms may again develop.
The main low has now opened up into a trough which extends from the eastern Gulf of Alaska all the way southward into southern California. One disturbance is moving through this trough today and will be the catalyst for showers over the mountain areas. However, it’s doubtful any particular location on the valley floor will receive measurable precip. A similar disturbance will move into Nevada Saturday, affecting only the higher elevations.
In the medium term, models show a significant trough of low pressure over the western states with generally a northwesterly flow aloft which will keep conditions seasonable through all of next week and possibly even the coming week.
We’re still looking at the timeframe of the 12th through the 15th for the possibility of tropical moisture moving northward into our region. We’re still going with a dry forecast but will be watching closely for the possibility of precipitation at the middle of the month.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight with a slight chance of light showers, mainly near the foothills. Becoming mostly clear Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/54/79/54/80 | Reedley 78/54/79/54/80 | Dinuba 77/53/78/54/79 | |
| Porterville 77/54/79/54/81 | Lindsay 78/53/80/54/81 | Delano 79/56/80/55/81 | |
| Bakersfield 77/62/80/61/80 | Taft 79/61/80/62/81 | Arvin 79/60/80/59/81 | |
| Lamont 78/58/80/54/81 | Pixley 79/54/80/54/81 | Tulare 77/53/79/54/80 | |
| Woodlake 79/54/81/54/81 | Hanford 79/54/79/55/81 | Orosi 79/54/80/55/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 54/80 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/79 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 11 through October 17: A broad area of low pressure will remain over the western U.S. during this time frame, resulting in a greater risk of scattered showers. The flow aloft will move from north to south right along the coast for generally below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 mph through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions, especially between the evening and early morning hours.
Rain: The chance of measurable rain is diminishing by the hour. A trough of low pressure is now to the east of the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible a few light showers could develop mainly along the foothills surrounding the valley, but all in all, this has been a humdinger of an event in some areas. Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next week. The exception will be the Sierra Nevada where afternoon and evening showers may develop. Towards the middle of the month, models are still playing with my head. A tropical system is projected to possibly move into southern California or Baja, but until we get to that time frame, dry weather will prevail.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Humidity: Visalia: 50%/90% Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity October 3, 2018: Delano, 98%/55%, Porterville, 83%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10% tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.26, Parlier NA, Blackwell 1.36, Lindcove 1.03, Arvin 1.33, Orange Cove 1.12, Porterville 0.94, Delano 1.07, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 80, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 78, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2081 +479
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 72.8 +4.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .07 season. or -.04. Month to Date: .-04
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .T, or -.01. Month to Date: .01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 am Sunset: 6:36 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 77 / 67 / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 66 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 67 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 64 / 0.19 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 75 / 65 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 79 / 66 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 75 / 67 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 64 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.02 0.02 50 0.00 0 0.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 0.01 25 0.00 0 0.04 13.11
MERCED T T 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.50
MADERA M T 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.06 0.07 233 0.00 0 0.03 11.50
HANFORD T 0.04 400 0.00 0 0.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.47
BISHOP T 0.40 1333 0.00 0 0.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 0.01 33 0.00 0 0.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 0.01 33 0.00 0 0.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.35 0.35 1167 0.00 0 0.03 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 5