October 5, 2018
Summary: There remains a considerable number of mid and low level clouds over the valley this morning, especially in Kern County then northward through Tulare and Fresno Counties. Most of this cloud cover will slowly burn off today, leading to mostly clear skies today and tonight. An autumn style low pressure system is moving through the Pacific Northwest. Light showers have spread as far south as Medford, Oregon. This will be move of an inside slider, however, as the bulk of the dynamics will move southeastward into the Great Basin. Still, showers are certainly possible along the Sierra Nevada Saturday as the system moves southeastward into the Desert Southwest. The main impact will be dry weather, but maintaining a very mild temperature regime over the weekend. Gusty winds will pick up along the west side, especially below coastal passes generally along the I-5 corridor.
We are now entering a pattern where a big trough of low pressure will stretch from off shore Canada southward into southern California. This will put our region under a northwest flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Occasionally, a minor wave of low pressure will move through the trough, resulting in gusty winds especially along the west side.
Temperatures next week will be marginally below average as the trough continues. Another impulse will move through Tuesday. There won’t be any active weather associated with it, however, with yet another possible late next week.
Meanwhile, to our south we have Hurricane Sergio which is a cat 3 hurricane. It’s chugging northwest, giving up its westerly flow. Models have been all over the place on the timing and the strength of this hurricane, ranging from central Baja to southern California. This morning’s model runs have Sergio moving into north central Baja late next week. This is something we’ll have to keep a close eye on as that trough of low pressure, in theory, could move some tropical juice into central California. We have roughly a week before Sergio moves on shore, regardless of where that occurs.
Forecast: partly cloudy this morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Thursday night with some possible increase in clouds Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/54/79/53/79 | Reedley 78/54/80/54/79 | Dinuba 77/55/79/54/79 | |
| Porterville 77/55/80/54/78 | Lindsay 78/55/80/54/78 | Delano 79/54/79/55/79 | |
| Bakersfield 77/60/77/58/79` | Taft 79/61/79/60/79 | Arvin 77/58/79/59/79 | |
| Lamont 78/58/79/55/79 | Pixley 77/54/79/54/79 | Tulare 77/54/79/53/78 | |
| Woodlake 78/55/78/54/78 | Hanford 79/54/80/54/78 | Orosi 77/55/78/55/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 53/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/80 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 55/81 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 56/79 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 57/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 12 through October 18: A broad area of low pressure will remain over the western U.S. during this time frame, resulting in a greater risk of scattered showers. The flow aloft will move from north to south right along the coast for generally below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west or northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts today. Winds late tonight through Saturday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the far west side. Late Saturday night through Monday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the far west side.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Thursday of next week. There is enough evidence to add a slight chance of showers and/or thunderstorms to the forecast for late Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane Sergio will take most of the week to come on shore somewhere between central California and central Baja. As you can see, there are large model differences, which is usually the case this far out. For now, I see a slight chance of showers Thursday night through Saturday. It’s completely unclear just how much moisture will move into our region, if any at all, so for now we’ll just keep it in the slight chance category. Just like with Rosa, we’ll tweak this as the days go by.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 50%/90% Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity October 4, 2018: Delano, 100%/48%, Porterville, 93%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.02, Parlier 0.98, Blackwell 1.19, Lindcove 0.97, Arvin 1.06, Orange Cove 1.05, Porterville 0.89, Delano 1.04, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 80, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 78, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 208511ees +479
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 71.9 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or +0.06 Month to Date: .-04
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.02. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 am Sunset: 6:35 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 63 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 80 / 57 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 59 / 0.28 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 79 / 57 / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 60 / 0.02 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 77 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 61 / T /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON T 1.28 2560 0.00 0 0.05 14.06
MODESTO T 0.01 20 0.00 0 0.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 0.10 250 0.00 0 0.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 400 0.00 0 0.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 1000 0.00 0 0.04 5.18
SALINAS T 0.67 1340 0.00 0 0.05 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 0.03 60 0.00 0 0.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 0.35 875 0.00 0 0.04 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 6