October 6, 2018
Summary: A broad trough of low pressure is now becoming well established over western North America as a gigantic high at the upper levels of the atmosphere covers the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. California is on the far western side of this trough with a rather robust north/northwest flow aloft. Periodically, weak disturbances will race through western Canada with most of the energy moving into the Great Basin. One of these little systems is moving through this morning with various amounts of cloud cover. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy this morning, especially over the south valley, with most locations either clear or partly cloudy by noon. I would expect upslope clouds to develop along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis. This may keep cloud cover over parts of Kern County into Sunday morning. There were actually a few light showers over the high Sierra near Yosemite, but they have since disappeared.
Hurricane Sergio is still a cat 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 125 MPH. models for the past week have been advertising various locations for possible landfall. However, both last night and today, some of these models are showing this storm moving through north central Baja with copious amounts of precipitation moving into Arizona and New Mexico. Central and even southern California are shown remaining dry, so we’ll go with that scenario in this forecast.
We have at least a week’s worth of pleasant temperatures as that dry, northwesterly flow continues to flow around that big trough to our east. We should begin to see temperatures move above average about the middle of the month as upper level high pressure again takes over.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy skies this morning, especially further south. Clearing this afternoon but remaining mostly cloudy in parts of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County through early Sunday morning. Mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy Sunday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/51/79/49/81 | Reedley 78/49/80/48/82 | Dinuba 77/48/79/47/80 | |
| Porterville 79/49/80/47/82 | Lindsay 79/49/80/48/81 | Delano 79/52/80/50/81 | |
| Bakersfield 77/57/80/55/82 | Taft 78/63/80/62/81 | Arvin 80/55/80/55/81 | |
| Lamont 79/54/80/53/82 | Pixley 80/50/80/51/82 | Tulare 77/49/78/48/81 | |
| Woodlake 78/50/80/48/81 | Hanford 78/51/79/49/82 | Orosi 78/50/80/49/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 51/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 52/82 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds later this morning through the evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Along the west side, wind gusts of near 30 MPH are possible along with local areas of blowing dust, especially where fields have recently been plowed. These winds will decrease Sunday to around 10 to 20 MPH and 5 to 12 MPH Monday and Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/85% Bakersfield: 35%/70%
Actual Humidity October 5, 2018: Delano, 100%/47%, Porterville, 97%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 0.96, Parlier 0.94, Blackwell 1.07, Lindcove 0.86, Arvin 1.20, Orange Cove 0.97, Porterville 0.91, Delano 1.00, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 73, Blackwell 79, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 78, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 99/37. Average Temperatures: 84/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2089
+479
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 71.2 +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or +0.04 Month to Date: .10 +0.4
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.02. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 6:33 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1649 / 76 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 78 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 76 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 1829 0.00 0 0.07 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 14 0.00 0 0.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 167 0.00 0 0.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 200 0.00 0 0.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 800 0.00 0 0.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 1117 0.00 0 0.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 50 0.00 0 0.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 700 0.00 0 0.05 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 8