October 10, 2018
Summary: Our weather is tranquil compared to the utter devastation that will occur in the coming hours along the Florida panhandle with the landfall of Hurricane Michael which has maximum sustained winds of 145 MPH with stronger gusts. In the meantime, out west here, the pattern remains quite pleasant as October typically is. We do currently have a strong push of marine air moving over the coastal mountains and through the Delta and into the valley. This is due to two different waves of low pressure. One is over Utah. The other is now moving into northern California with no precipitation. All of these systems are part of a broad trough of low pressure covering the western one-third of north America. California is under a north/northwest flow aloft as a strong high governs the central and eastern portions of the Pacific and extends into the southern Gulf of Alaska.
Temperatures will drop into the 70s today and more so on Thursday as the valley pools with marine air and somewhat cooler air moves in at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The average for this time of year is now in the upper 70s, so this is not at all unusual.
Friday will be a transition day into what could be a rather dicey pattern. Currently, I don’t foresee any precipitation but I want to keep an eye on an upper low, or cut off low, which is forecast to develop just off the central coast right about the time tropical storm Sergio moves inland through north central Baja Friday morning. Some models show precipitation moving into parts of southern California, especially the southern Coachella and Imperial Valleys. Others show precip remaining south and east of southern California. What’s tricky here is the counter clockwise circulation around an upper low just to our west which could drag some of that tropical juice northward for the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. For now, no model really shows precipitation moving into our region, so we’ll just go with the flow for now.
Overall, Saturday through the middle of next week will be dominated by an upper high over the eastern Pacific and western United States with the aforementioned cut off low meandering off the central and possibly even southern California coast. Temperatures over the weekend and beyond will rise to above seasonal values but no real hot weather is foreseen.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Saturday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear and warmer Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/47/74/46/80 | Reedley 77/48/76/48/81 | Dinuba 77/47/75/46/79 | |
| Porterville 78/48/77/47/80 | Lindsay 78/47/77/48/81 | Delano 78/50/77/49/82 | |
| Bakersfield 78/55/77/54/80 | Taft 77/58/77/57/82 | Arvin 79/52/78/53/82 | |
| Lamont 78/54/78/53/81 | Pixley 77/48/77/47/81 | Tulare 76/47/77/47/82 | |
| Woodlake 78/48/77/47/79 | Hanford 77/49/77/48/81 | Orosi 78/47/77/46/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 50/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 51/85 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/83 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 51/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 22: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times through tonight with local gusts to 35 MPH, mainly below the passes along the Coast Range from northwest Kern County northward. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts along the west side. Winds Friday through Saturday will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/90% Bakersfield: 35%/70%
Actual Humidity October 9, 2018: Delano, 90%/24%, Porterville, 92%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier 0.93, Blackwell 1.11, Lindcove 0.84, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove 0.96, Porterville 0.93, Delano 0.94, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 71, Blackwell 78, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 75, Delano 68
Record Temperatures: 99/42. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2095 +472
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 68.9 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.01 Month to Date: .10 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.05. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 6:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:26
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1631 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 985 0.00 0 0.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 8 0.00 0 0.13 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 91 0.00 0 0.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 80 0.00 0 0.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 500 0.00 0 0.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 558 0.00 0 0.12 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 27 0.00 0 0.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 389 0.00 0 0.09 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 11