October 17, 2018
Summary: Low pressure is currently centered over northern Arizona. All of the cloud cover from this system is on the eastern and northern flanks of the storm, well away from central California. A ridge of upper level high pressure is over and along the west coast of the U.S. with a ridge jutting northeastward into British Columbia. This will cause the northeast flow aloft to continue. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through the weekend as the off shore flow continues.
A new low will develop off the southern California coast by Friday night, turning the winds above central California out of the southeast. Models are still showing at least a minimal amount of subtropical moisture will become entrained in the eastern and northern flanks for at least a small chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern California northward to the Kern County mountains. The chance of rain for now appears to be very unlikely for the valley floor as most of the cloud cover will be mid and high level with a dry air mass at ground level. Still, I cannot eliminate the small possibility in the forecast so we’ll keep that in play for Saturday night through early Monday.
Next week, the flow aloft will turn more westerly as the high begins to flatten out, allowing storminess to return to the Pacific Northwest. For now, no precipitation is expected for at least the southern 2/3 of California with temperatures not ranging too far from seasonal values.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday night. Becoming partly cloudy later Saturday through Monday with a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night through early Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/44/82/45/84 | Reedley 82/45/83/46/83 | Dinuba 81/44/82/45/83 | |
| Porterville 83/44/84/45/85 | Lindsay 82/43/83/44/84 | Delano 83/45/84/46/85 | |
| Bakersfield 84/55/85/56/85 | Taft 83/57/84/58/84 | Arvin 85/48/85/50/85 | |
| Lamont 85/51/85/52/85 | Pixley 82/44/83/45/84 | Tulare 81/43/82/45/83 | |
| Woodlake 81/45/82/46/83 | Hanford 82/46/83/47/84 | Orosi 81/44/82/46/84 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 50/83 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 56/80 |
Monday
AM showers possible 55/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 47/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: This model begins to ratchet up the action over the eastern Pacific Ocean with the storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California. For now, it appears most, if not all, the precipitation will remain north of our region. However, we will definitely be monitoring this. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.
Rain: Expect dry weather more than likely well into Saturday with a good possibility indefinitely. The only time frame I’m hedging on a bit is for Saturday night through early Monday when a low should take shape off the southern California coast. Some models are still indicating this feature will pick up subtropical moisture then move it towards the northwest, into southern California northward to the Kern County mountains. We will m ore than likely remain dry. I put the chance of measurable precipitation at perhaps 10% to 20% or so, however we’ll tweak that as we move forward in time.
After Monday morning, expect a return to dry weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/85% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity October 16, 2018: Delano, 87%/25%, Porterville, 88%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier 0.94, Blackwell 1.11, Lindcove 0.91, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville 0.96, Delano 0.91, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Blackwell 75, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 72, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 97/36. Average Temperatures: 79/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +465
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 67.1 +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.12 Month to Date: .10 -.12
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.09. Month to Date: .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 6:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:10
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 81 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 441 0.00 0 0.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 4 0.00 0 0.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.24 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 45 0.00 0 0.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 27 0.00 0 0.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 286 0.00 0 0.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 291 0.00 0 0.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 13 0.00 0 0.23 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 175 0.00 0 0.20 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 18