October 19, 2018
Summary: Another chilly morning in the valley with most ag stations this morning reporting readings in the low to mid 40s. the dry air mass remains and will allow those warm afternoons but chilly nights to continue. In the broad picture this morning, there is a low center over Utah and Colorado which is beginning to slide eastward. Just off the California coast, a zone of upper level high pressure resides with a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. This allows a weak north to northeast flow to continue off shore.
Models show a very weak low center forming just west of Vandenberg beginning today and show it remaining there for the next 36 hours or so. Some models are still insisting that there may be enough subtropical moisture becoming entrained in this system for isolated thunderstorms and showers over the mountains and deserts of southern California and the southern Sierra Nevada from later Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It does not appear there will be enough dynamics to support rain for the valley floor, so we will go with a dry forecast.
A temporary relatively strong off shore flow will set up today and last through Saturday due to the off shore flow, again cranking up the Santa Ana winds in southern California and in Kern County. There’s always a slight chance some of these winds could make it to the valley floor, but at this time I consider that possibility to be very low.
By early next week, the low will have pretty much dissipated with upper level high pressure remaining off shore. However, it will be a weaker version and should allow temperatures to fall back a few degrees. By Thursday and Friday, the storm track will be moving into the Pacific Northwest, however a flat zone of upper level high pressure will maintain itself off shore, keeping precipitation well to our north. Models also show the formation of a weak cut off low, possibly centered near northern Baja Wednesday through Friday of next week. For now, it appears it will be of little concern.
Forecast: Clear skies today and tonight. Mostly clear Saturday through Sunday night with occasional mid and high level clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Friday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/46/85/48/84 | Reedley 83/44/84/46/84 | Dinuba 82/45/83/48/83 | |
| Porterville 85/46/85/49/84 | Lindsay 84/44/85/48/85 | Delano 85/48/86/50/85 | |
| Bakersfield 85/58/86/60/86 | Taft 85/62/86/63/85 | Arvin 86/53/86/54/85 | |
| Lamont 85/53/86/55/86 | Pixley 84/46/85/48/84 | Tulare 83/45/84/48/83 | |
| Woodlake 84/46/85/48/84 | Hanford 85/47/85/48/84 | Orosi 83/44/84/47/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 49/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 49/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California. A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. This will also result in above average temperatures.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 18, 2018: Delano, 89%/21%, Porterville, 87%/16%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier 0.93, Blackwell 1.14, Lindcove 0.91, Arvin 1.14, Orange Cove 1.03, Porterville 0.94, Delano 0.92 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 69, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 71, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 92/30. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +463
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.8 +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.17 Month to Date: .10 -.17
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.12. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 6:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 366 0.00 0 0.35 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.30 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 37 0.00 0 0.27 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 22 0.00 0 0.18 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 250 0.00 0 0.16 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 248 0.00 0 0.27 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 11 T 0 0.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 146 T 0 0.24 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 20