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Forecast

October 22, 2018/report

October 22, 2018

Summary:  The low which was just off shore yesterday is moving north/northeast this morning into California.  The low is completely dry except along its eastern flank over the Great Basin where some showers are occurring.  By tomorrow morning at this time, this feature will be out of the picture.  The fact that it is overhead today should allow for a minor cooling trend.  In fact, the overall pattern will maintain high pressure aloft off shore with a north/northwest flow, or a slightly onshore flow.  The marine layer this morning has deepened to 1,900 feet.  There is a minimal amount of sea breeze moving through the Delta as winds at Travis Air Force Base were out of the southwest sustained at 16 MPH.  there is no sea breeze moving through Pacheco Pass or other gaps and passes through the Coast Range.  By midweek, the onshore flow should increase enough for at least some marine air to affect temperatures with readings near to slightly above average for this time of year.  By Thursday, the off shore high will begin to flatten out, allowing the storm track to begin to move into the Pacific Northwest.  However, over the weekend the high will bulge northward into Washington and Oregon.

 

In the medium term, a zonal flow will set up next week with the storm track again moving into Washington and Oregon.  Some models show parts of northern California with a chance of showers from time to time, but for now it appears any precipitation will remain to our north.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Thursday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 81/43/78/43/77 Reedley 82/44/79/43/78 Dinuba 80/42/78/42/78
Porterville 83/45/79/44/77 Lindsay 82/43/79/42/77 Delano 83/46/79/44/77
Bakersfield 83/55/79/54/78 Taft 82/58/79/57/78 Arvin 84/51/80/50/79
Lamont 83/52/80/49/79 Pixley 82/46/79/44/78 Tulare 81/44/79/43/78
Woodlake 81/43/79/43/78 Hanford 82/44/79/43/77 Orosi 82/43/78/43/77

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

44/81

Friday

Mostly clear

46/83

Saturday

Mostly clear

50/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

49/85

Monday

Mostly clear

51/81

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 26 through November 1:  This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California.  A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S.  This will also result in above average temperatures.

 

November:  This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation.  It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well.  As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.

 

November, December January:  According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State.  Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages.  However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.

 

Winds:  Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90%  Bakersfield: 25%/60%

Actual Humidity October 21, 2018: Delano, 91%/27%, Porterville, 87%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.05, Parlier 0.90, Blackwell 1.07, Lindcove 0.89, Arvin 1.15, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 0.92, Delano 0.91  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 67, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 62

 

Record Temperatures: 92/35. Average Temperatures: 77/48

Heating Degree Days this Season: 8 -41

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 66.6 +1.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.24  Month to Date: .10 -.24

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.15.  Month to Date: .00 -.15

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:14 am  Sunset: 6:12 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:58

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  86 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  85 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  85 /  48 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  86 /  46 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  84 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  82 /  47 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  84 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  85 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  84 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28   298    0.12    28     0.43    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     3    0.12    32     0.38    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.15    42     0.36    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.08    21     0.39    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    29    0.09    26     0.34    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04    17    0.06    26     0.23    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.15     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40   222    0.00     0     0.18     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67   203    0.13    39     0.33    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03     9    0.08    24     0.33    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35   117    0.03    10     0.30    13.95

 

Next report:  Tuesday, October 23