October 24, 2018
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon will end up a degree or two lower than yesterday with similar conditions Thursday. Upper level high pressure is off the Pacific coast while a weak disturbance moves through northern Baja and southern California. This will lower pressures aloft slightly during the next 48 hours, bringing readings down to near seasonal values. That will be short lived, however, as that off shore high begins to build inland starting Friday. It will dominate the pattern through Sunday. The haze and particulate matter already trapped on the valley floor will be there through the weekend from the various fires added to the usual seasonal haze. Temperatures Friday will move back up into the low to mid 80s with 80s being the norm both Saturday and Sunday.
The next change in our pattern will occur Sunday night and Monday as the first in a series of storms moves into the Pacific Northwest. For now, it appears a flat zone of upper level high pressure will maintain itself well over the eastern Pacific, extending inland over California. So precipitation to our north will affect the far northern counties of California, but that’s all. However, the surface flow will become on shore with a north/northwest flow aloft spreading a cooler air mass into our region. Low to mid 70s are likely beginning Monday and lasting through at least Thursday of next week. Hopefully all this will break the cap over the valley floor for theoretically improved air quality.
There’s still nothing on models that would point to a chance of rain anytime soon. If things work out the way they appear on models, dry weather will continue through the first week in November.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today. Mostly clear tonight through Saturday with a warming trend beginning Friday. Mostly clear Saturday through Wednesday with cooler weather next week.
Short Term:
Madera 77/43/78/44/83 | Reedley 76/42/77/44/82 | Dinuba 77/42/78/44/83 | |
Porterville 78/44/78/45/85 | Lindsay 78/41/79/43/85 | Delano 77/46/79/47/85 | |
Bakersfield 79/55/79/58/85 | Taft 79/60/79/62/85 | Arvin 79/50/79/51/86 | |
Lamont 79/51/79/54/86 | Pixley 78/44/78/45/84 | Tulare 77/42/78/44/83 | |
Woodlake 77/43/78/44/83 | Hanford 78/45/79/45/84 | Orosi 77/42/78/44/84 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Mostly clear 48/85 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 48/86 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 51/78 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 44/73 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 42/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 31 through November 6: This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California. A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. This will also result in above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 15 MPH through at least Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/60%
Actual Humidity October 23, 2018: Delano, 84%/36%, Porterville, 89%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.03, Parlier 0.88, Blackwell 1.03, Lindcove 0.85, Arvin 1.05, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 0.89, Delano 0.89 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 76/47
Heating Degree Days this Season: 12 -45
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.3 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.29 Month to Date: .10 -.29
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.17. Month to Date: .00 -.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:16 am Sunset: 6:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 56 / 0.00
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 79 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 261 0.12 24 0.49 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 2 0.12 28 0.43 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 36 0.42 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 18 0.45 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 26 0.09 23 0.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 15 0.06 23 0.26 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.17 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 200 0.00 0 0.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 186 0.13 36 0.36 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 8 0.08 21 0.38 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 100 0.03 9 0.35 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 25