November 3, 2018
Summary: The persistent eastern Pacific high which has been so dominant in recent years continues to be in complete control of our weather pattern. It will remain that way for at least the next week or so. The Pacific storm track rides over the top of the high and into British Columbia and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Northwest. From there, it dives southeastward into the interior west. The next in this series will occur Monday, resulting in some high clouds at times with temperatures falling to near seasonal values by Tuesday. It’s hard to believe but the average temperatures for this time of year are now in the upper 60s.
We have to go way out to around Veterans’ Day or a few days after to find a possible change in the pattern. Some models suggest a rather robust low pressure system will move into the interior west just to the east of the Sierra Nevada then forming a deep low over southern California. If this does occur, there would be a small chance of showers but mainly over the Sierra Nevada. After about the 13th, upper level high pressure will again take over for more dry weather.
I must emphasize the chance of measurable precipitation about the 12th or 13th is rather minimal, but when you’re trying to grab onto anything that would result in precipitation, it’s worth talking about.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/44/80/43/77 | Reedley 77/43/80/45/78 | Dinuba 76/44/79/45/77 | |
| Porterville 78/44/80/45/79 | Lindsay 79/43/80/44/78 | Delano 78/47/81/48/78 | |
| Bakersfield 80/55/81/55/78 | Taft 78/57/81/59/78 | Arvin 80/49/82/50/79 | |
| Lamont 79/51/81/52/77 | Pixley 78/43/80/45/77 | Tulare 76/43/78/44/78 | |
| Woodlake 77/43/80/45/77 | Hanford 78/44/81/45/78 | Orosi 77/43/80/44/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 43/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/76 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 42/74 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/73 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 40/74 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Some models are suggesting a rather robust low will slide through the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada about the 12th and forming a low over southern California about the 13th. If this pattern actually occurs, there would be the likelihood of showers in the Sierra Nevada but only a small chance in the central valley. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast and see how things pan out.
Frost Discussion: No chance of frost for the foreseeable future at this time.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/60%
Actual Humidity November 2, 2018: Delano, 87%/29% Porterville, 94%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .90, Parlier .74, Blackwell .88, Lindcove .69, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .84, Porterville .74, Delano .75 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 63, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 39 -82
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 61.0 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.59 Month to Date: .00 -.06
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.33. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 Parlier, 7 Orange Cove 0, Arvin, 0 Shafter, 8 Stratford, 4 Lindcove, 0 Porterville, 12 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:26 am Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 81 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 139 0.12 13 0.92 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.12 16 0.75 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 16 0.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 8 0.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 14 0.09 13 0.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 7 0.06 10 0.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.33 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 121 0.00 0 0.33 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 105 0.13 20 0.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 4 0.09 13 0.69 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 52 0.03 4 0.67 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 3/PM