November 4, 2018
Summary: A considerable amount of high, thin clouds are rotating around the eastern periphery of upper level high pressure which is located roughly 500 miles to our west. The mainly cirro form type clouds were dense enough to actually hold temperatures 3 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Even so, skies will remain mostly clear over the next couple of days with possible in and out high clouds from time to time. Disturbances will continue to move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin for the next week or so, too far to the east to have much of an impact on central California other than on and off winds over the high Sierra and Kern County mountains. The high will drift a bit closer towards the southwest as we head into midweek, meaning weaker high pressure aloft and somewhat cooler temperatures. Despite this, we can’t seem to break the spine of this persistent upper high, so no precipitation is expected. Even around the twelfth and thirteenth, the chance seems very low. Models aren’t as bullish on a potential storm system somewhere over the interior west during this time frame. So, more of the same. Expect dry conditions for more than likely the next ten days if not longer with at least somewhat above average daytime temperatures and near average readings during the overnight hours.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Wednesday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/43/80/42/78 | Reedley 83/44/80/43/78 | Dinuba 81/44/80/41/77 | |
| Porterville 83/43/80/42/79 | Lindsay 82/42/79/42/78 | Delano 83/46/80/45/79 | |
| Bakersfield 82/51/80/50/78 | Taft 82/56/80/55/79 | Arvin 83/50/80/50/79 | |
| Lamont 83/50/80/49/79 | Pixley 82/43/80/42/78 | Tulare 81/42/80/42/77 | |
| Woodlake 81/43/80/42/77 | Hanford 82/43/80/42/78 | Orosi 81/43/80/42/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 42/75 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 41/74 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/76 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 41/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 40/74 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: No chance of frost for the foreseeable future at this time.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity November 3, 2018: Delano, 82%/34% Porterville, 91%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .73, Blackwell .89, Lindcove .69, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .82, Porterville .73, Delano .75 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 63, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 71/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 43 -86
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 60.8 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.62 Month to Date: .00 -.09
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.35. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 Parlier, 7 Orange Cove 0, Arvin, 0 Shafter, 9 Stratford, 4 Lindcove, 0 Delano 4, Porterville, 14 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:27 am Sunset: 4:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 77 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 78 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 78 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 132 0.13 13 0.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.13 16 0.79 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 16 0.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 8 1.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 14 0.09 13 0.72 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 6 0.06 9 0.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 118 0.00 0 0.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 99 0.21 31 0.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 4 0.19 26 0.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 49 0.03 4 0.71 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 5