November 6, 2018
Summary: The main players this morning are pretty much where they have been the past few days. The center of upper level high pressure is several hundred miles off the southern California coast. This is creating a northwest flow over the state. Dew points are a bit lower than they have been. The traditional cold spots have fallen into the mid to upper 30s. a weak wave of low pressure will move through Wednesday night and Thursday with no weather, but a surface high will develop over the Great Basin, creating an off shore flow. Some of this dry air moving in from the interior west could mix down to the valley floor, lowering dew points even more with local frost even being possible in river bottom and similar locations Thursday and Friday mornings. No significant frost event is expected, though.
Over the weekend, strong upper level high pressure will begin to slowly move towards the coast and will build a ridge northward to almost the Gulf of Alaska by Monday. This will result in well above average daytime temperatures for the first half of next week, but with relatively dry air in place, overnight lows will still be chilly.
Some models at one time were suggesting some kind of change around the 13th or 14th. These models are backing off on that suggestion, keeping a ridge in place for a continuation of dry weather. The two week model is also suggesting a big and cold trough of low pressure will be east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure shielding California, dragging storms well north.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/40/75/39/71 | Reedley 74/41/74/41/72 | Dinuba 73/39/75/39/71 | |
| Porterville 75/39/75/40/72 | Lindsay 74/38/75/39/73 | Delano 76/43/75/43/73 | |
| Bakersfield 74/49/75/49/74 | Taft 75/54/75/54/72 | Arvin 76/46/77/46/75 | |
| Lamont 75/48/75/47/74 | Pixley 74/39/75/40/73 | Tulare 73/38/74/39/73 | |
| Woodlake 74/40/75/40/71 | Hanford 75/40/75/41/72 | Orosi 74/39/75/38/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 38/74 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/73 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 40/74 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 12 through November 18: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: From late Wednesday through Friday, an off shore surface flow will develop. This in itself is not a serious situation, at all, but dry air moving down through the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley could lower dew points enough for local frost in river bottom and similar terrain. No widespread frost is expected, but it would be nice to get some rain in here to inject moisture onto the valley floor in case a frost pattern does develop. A dry valley floor would only hurt the situation. For now, though, so far so good.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity November 5, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 94%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier .71, Blackwell .89, Lindcove .67, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .72, Delano .73 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 64, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 87/33. Average Temperatures: 70/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 46 -101
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 61.8 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.69 Month to Date: .00 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.39. Month to Date: .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 Parlier, 7 Orange Cove 0, Arvin, 0 Shafter, 10 Stratford, 4 Lindcove, 0 Delano 6, Porterville, 19 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:29 am Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 79 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 74 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 77 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 77 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 75 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 120 0.13 12 1.07 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.13 15 0.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 14 1.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 7 1.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 13 0.10 13 0.79 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 5 0.06 8 0.73 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 5 0.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 108 0.00 0 0.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 89 0.21 28 0.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 4 0.20 25 0.79 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 45 0.04 5 0.78 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, November 6/pm