November 7, 2018
Summary: This is the last day of a weather pattern which overall has resulted in above average temperatures. A wave of low pressure will move through the Great Basin this afternoon and tonight followed by a building surface high over the Great Basin which will result in a fairly strong off shore flow. Beginning tomorrow, Santa Ana winds will crank up over southern California. Some of these winds could work their way downslope into the extreme south valley. The best chance of this occurring will be tomorrow afternoon through Friday.
In the meantime, upper level high pressure will build northward along the Pacific coast and will ridge into the Pacific Northwest and, eventually, western Canada over the weekend. This will briefly turn the winds aloft northeasterly. The combination of the off shore surface flow at the surface and aloft will mix drier air down onto the valley floor, especially in Kern County. If dew points fall enough from this, frost will be a real possibility, especially Saturday and Sunday mornings in the colder locations. More on that in the frost discussion below.
By Monday, there will be a strong upper high located almost right overhead ridging far to the north, almost into the Yukon Territory of Canada. This will result in winter type conditions over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. and above average daytime temperatures in California. With the dry air mass, overnight lows will be near to even marginally below average. By midweek, the high will flatten out, returning the storm track to the Pacific Northwest, however there’s little indication of a pattern which would result in precipitation for central California through the middle of the month and possibly beyond.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
Madera 75/40/70/37/70 | Reedley 75/40/71/38/71 | Dinuba 73/39/71/37/71 | |
Porterville 75/41/70/38/71 | Lindsay 74/38/70/37/70 | Delano 76/43/71/41/71 | |
Bakersfield 75/47/72/45/73 | Taft 75/51/72/50/72 | Arvin 76/47/72/52/75 | |
Lamont 75/46/72/45/73 | Pixley 74/40/72/39/72 | Tulare 73/39/71/38/70 | |
Woodlake 74/40/71/38/71 | Hanford 75/39/71/38/71 | Orosi 74/39/71/38/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Mostly clear 35/75 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/74 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/73 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Two Week Outlook: November 12 through November 18: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds over the entire valley will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions, continuing through Saturday north of Kern County. A fairly strong Santa Ana wind configuration is setting up for Thursday afternoon through Friday. These winds could progress downslope, resulting in locally strong, gusty winds, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains which encompasses the bottom of the Grapevine eastward through the Arvin/Edison area and locally elsewhere. I would put the chance of this occurring at about 30% to 40%. If these winds do make it all the way downslope, gusts to 45 MPH are possible. Winds will decrease Friday evening with light winds returning over the weekend.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: There is the very real possibility of frost in the colder locations, mainly Saturday and Sunday mornings. A strong off shore flow at both the surface and aloft should begin to mix drier air onto the valley floor, lowering dew points well down into the 30s and even lower in Kern County where the possibility of strong, gusty winds exists for tomorrow afternoon through Friday. Coldest readings each of those mornings could dip down into the 29 to 32 degree range with widespread mid to upper 30s elsewhere. By the time we get into early next week, daytime highs will be warming again, but dry air trapped on the valley floor will allow chilly overnight lows to continue possibly into the lower 30s in the very coldest locations. The air mass will have modified enough by Wednesday for above freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity November 6, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 94%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier .70, Blackwell .85, Lindcove .69, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .82, Porterville .71, Delano .74 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 64, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 60
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 53 -104
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 61.2 +4.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.72 Month to Date: .00 -.19
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.41. Month to Date: .00 -.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0 Parlier, 10 Orange Cove 0, Arvin, 0 Shafter, 16 Stratford, 8 Lindcove, 0 Delano 6, Porterville, 26 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 4:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:25
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 76 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 74 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 76 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 74 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 113 0.13 12 1.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.13 14 0.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 14 1.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 7 1.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 12 0.10 12 0.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 5 0.06 8 0.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 5 0.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 103 0.00 0 0.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 85 0.21 27 0.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 4 0.20 24 0.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 43 0.04 5 0.82 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, November 7/pm