November 8, 2018
Summary: currently, a dry wave of low pressure is moving through the interior west with the far western side of this feature moving through central California. In the meantime, upper level pressure off shore is building north/northeast into the Pacific Northwest and will eventually ridge into the Yukon Territory of Canada. The winds aloft later today through Friday will be out of the north/northeast, moving a cooler air mass in aloft. At the surface, strong high pressure will set up shop over the Great Basin, creating a rather robust off shore flow with the Santa Ana’s again being cranked up over southern California. It’s possible these downslope winds could make it to the valley floor in Kern County this afternoon through Friday. More on that in the wind discussion below.
Another off shore flow will briefly set up Sunday and Sunday night, injecting more dry air down to the valley floor. There is a decent chance of local frost, especially Saturday and Sunday mornings, as cooler and drier air mixes down to the valley floor. Already this morning, gusty winds are blowing through the Sacramento Valley out of the north and are reaching into the far northern portion of the San Joaquin Valley.
That massive high will dominate the pattern over California through about Tuesday. Most models show the northern flank breaking down at that time, allowing the storm track to break into the Pacific Northwest as a zonal flow sets up. Unfortunately, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will remain off shore California eastward into the Desert Southwest, maintaining dry weather with temperatures coming in at roughly seasonal values.
Still nothing longer term that suggests a chance of precipitation.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/37/70/33/71 | Reedley 71/38/70/33/70 | Dinuba 70/36/69/32/70 | |
| Porterville 71/37/71/33/71 | Lindsay 71/36/71/32/71 | Delano 72/40/71/35/71 | |
| Bakersfield 73/46/73/41/73 | Taft 72/52/72/44/73 | Arvin 75/44/73/38/73 | |
| Lamont 73/44/73/40/73 | Pixley 71/38/70/34/71 | Tulare 70/37/70/32/71 | |
| Woodlake 70/37/70/34/71 | Hanford 72/38/71/34/70 | Orosi 71/36/71/32/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 34/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 35/74 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 38/73 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 37/73 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21: This model continues to show a blocking ridge along the west coast with little chance of precipitation and somewhat above average temperatures. One model, though, suggests a deep trough of low pressure will move through just after Veteran’s Day for even a chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and see what trend develops going forward.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds north of the Kern County line will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday. Along the far west side, there is a chance of gusty north to northeast winds near the base of the Coast Range gusting to 30 MPH this afternoon through Friday morning. The surface pressure gradient will increase this afternoon through Friday morning, spawning gusty easterly winds over the Tehachapi Mountains. There is a chance of these winds blowing downslope and reaching the valley floor, mainly in the extreme south at places like the bottom of the Grapevine and eastward to roughly Highway 58. Sometimes these winds can reach as far north as about Oildale. It’s always a tough forecast under these circumstances, but I would say the chance is roughly 30%, especially south and east of Bakersfield. If these winds do occur, they would be mainly in the 15 to 30 MPH range with the strongest gust near the base of the Tehachapis. The pressure gradient will begin to relax Friday afternoon, putting an end to this threat.
A brief off shore flow will again occur Sunday into Monday, but for now I’ll leave winds on the valley floor out of the forecast. So, Friday night through early next week, winds will be generally less than 10 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: A relatively strong surface high will build east of the Sierra Nevada today through Friday. This will crank up the Santa Ana winds to our south with the low possibility of winds reaching the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Even if this doesn’t happen, a much drier air mass will move in aloft. In fact, dew points over the higher elevations of the nearby mountains will drop to below 0 tonight and Friday with some of this dry air slowly mixing down to the valley floor. To our north, dew points have already dropped as much as 20 degrees in the Sacramento and extreme northern San Joaquin Valleys. We may see some gusty northerly wind alogn the far west side this afternoon through Friday morning, lowering dew points there then slowly infiltrating the central and eastern portions of the valley. Kern County will see the lowest dew points Friday through Saturday, especially if any winds develop. Currently, it appears Friday afternoon through Saturday will see dew points lower into the mid 20s to the lower 30s and possibly even lower south of the Kern County line. This would allow strong radiational cooling to occur with local frost, especially in the usual trouble spots. On Saturday and Sunday mornings, coldest locations could dip down to 29 to 31 degrees with many other locations at or just above freezing.
Looking ahead to Monday and beyond, even though strong upper level high pressure will be above us Monday and Tuesday, the dry air I anticipate will remain on the valley floor so even though temperatures will rise into the 70s during the day, coldest locations could still drop into the low to mid 30s. by Wednesday, a westerly flow will break through aloft, theoretically injecting moisture into the lower levels of the atmosphere with overnight lows beginning to moderate above freezing. Currently, there’s nothing on the horizon that would result in a pattern that would be of concern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella | Porterville | Ivanhoe | Woodlake |
| Strathmore
33 |
Mcfarland | Ducor | Tea Pot Dome |
| Lindsay
33 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso | Madera |
| Belridge | Delano | North Bakersfield | Orosi
33 |
| Orange Cove | Lindcove
33 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
33 |
Venice Hill | Rosedale | Jasmine |
| Arvin | Lamont | Plainview | Mettler |
| Edison | Maricopa | Holland Creek | Tivy Valley |
| Kite Road South | Kite Road North |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity November 7, 2018: Delano, 83%/26%, Porterville, 95%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .88, Parlier .71, Blackwell .87, Lindcove .69, Arvin .82, Orange Cove .80, Porterville .71, Delano .72 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 63, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 60 -107
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 60.7 +4.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.76 Month to Date: .00 -.23
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.43. Month to Date: .00 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 1, Parlier, 15 , Arvin, 3 Shafter, 23 Stratford, 14, Lindcove, 0 Delano 12, Porterville, 33 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:23
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 77 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 76 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1551 / 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 108 0.13 11 1.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.13 14 0.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 13 1.14 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 7 1.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 12 0.10 12 0.86 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 5 0.06 7 0.82 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 5 0.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 100 0.00 0 0.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 81 0.21 25 0.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.20 23 0.86 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 41 0.04 5 0.86 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 8/pm