November 9, 2018
Summary: Fairly strong Santa Ana winds are buffeting the Kern County mountains but are slowly weakening with time. This time around, these winds did not really make it very far out over the valley floor even though the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine continues to indicate winds out of the southeast at 17 MPH, gusting to 35. The pressure difference between the interior and the coast will begin to weaken from this point on, ending the wind situation over the southland, temporarily. There is a better chance of strong, gusty winds in Kern County coming up Sunday into Monday as a very cold weather system is invading the northern Rockies at this hour. By the time Sunday rolls around, this system will already be diving into the middle of the country with yet another strong surface high invading the Great Basin. This will create very strong Santa Anas over the mountains and deserts of southern California and possibly invading parts of the valley portion of Kern County. Always a risky forecast with these winds, but certainly worth mentioning.
A massive ridge of upper level high pressure will extend from California to southern Alaska and the Yukon Territory of northwest Alaska Sunday night and Monday. This favors very cold air diving southward into the Rockies and the Midwestern U.S. with very stable conditions over the western U.S.
The next change will occur about Wednesday when the northern flank of the high begins to break down, allowing a weak westerly flow to set up over the eastern Pacific and California. No precipitation is on the horizon for now. Expect dry conditions through all of next week and quite possibly beyond, although some models are hinting at some kind of change about the 22 or 23.
Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Monday. Generally clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/71/30/70 | Reedley 33/70/32/70 | Dinuba 30/69/30/70 | |
| Porterville 33/72/32/72 | Lindsay 31/71/30/72 | Delano 34/72/33/72 | |
| Bakersfield 38/72/38/73 | Arvin 33/74/33/73 | Taft 41/72/41/72 | |
| Lamont 34/73/34/72 | Pixley 31/71/31/72 | Tulare 30/70/30/71 | |
| Woodlake 32/72/32/71 | Hanford 33/71/32/70 | Orosi 31/71/31/70 | |
Winds: Winds have been generally very light over the past 24 hours with the exception of the extreme south valley where a few locations along the lip of the Tehachapi Mountains gusted to 40 MPH. These winds will die off by this evening with light winds tonight through Saturday night. We’ll have another potential strong, gusty wind situation for Kern County Sunday night into Monday night. The configuration of a strong off shore flow is a bit more favorable this time for strong winds to blow downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and fan out over portions of the Kern County region of the valley floor. Judging from past experiences with these configurations, gusty winds could make it as far north as Bakersfield and to the west at about Taft. For now, I would put the chance of winds occurring in Kern County at about 50% to 60%. As a rule of thumb, the closer to the Tehachapis, the greater the potential for strong winds, possibly in the 25 to 30 MPH range with local gusts over 40 possible. This potential wind event should be over by later Monday as the high over the Great Basin begins to weaken. North of Kern County will see winds of generally less than 7 MPH with periods of calm conditions, though it’s possible some northerly gusty winds could occur on the far west side Sunday through Monday morning.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Information: Dew points in Tulare County have been hanging up there pretty nicely. In fact, they’re higher than I would have expected and generally range in the upper 30s to even the lower 40s. On the west side, dew points are generally in the mid to upper 20s as well as in Kern County. So, conditions will likely be quite variable tonight, though for now I don’t believe it will get as cold as we expected in this morning’s report, though coldest locations will be at or just below freezing tonight. Coldest locations will dip down to 29 to 31. Most will range between 32 and 35 with hillsides generally above freezing. The inversion will be fairly weak, especially in Kern County, with temperatures at 34 feet generally 3 to 5 degrees warmer, although mixing will add quite a bit of variance to that. Expect similar conditions Sunday morning.
We have another interesting possible wind situation coming up Sunday into Monday as the winds aloft and at the surface will again turn off shore. The configuration this time around favors gusty winds in the south valley, mainly Kern County, driving down dew points again…if this occurs. It remains to be seen how dew points will react north of Kern County, how much air mixes down to the valley floor, but there is certainly the potential of somewhat lower dew points Monday and Tuesday mornings. For now, we’ll just keep the usual cold spots at or below freezing for those nights with most other locations at 33 to 37, though that’s subject to change.
I wanted to add this: some models are showing a strong low over southern California about the 22 to 23 with a trough of low pressure flanked from northeast to southeast, creating a northeast flow aloft. That is a pattern we always carefully watch during the frost season in case cold air arrives from the interior west. Since this is only the ninth, much could change, and probably will, but I though it worth mentioning.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
33 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Saturday morning/November 10