November 9, 2018
Summary: A moderately strong off shore flow continues this morning. The Santa Anas are cranked up over southern California and over the Kern County mountains. It’s been a close call so far as these winds have only made it down to the bottom of the Grapevine and a few miles out into the valley. At last report, winds were gusting to 34 MPH at the CHP office. A few hours ago, winds were gusting to 40 MPH. Checking other stations such as Arvin, and only light winds have been reported. Dew points have fallen below 0 over the Kern County mountains. Some of this dry air is infiltrating the valley floor, especially in Kern County, but even elsewhere, dew points were lowered as compared to the past few mornings. Last night throughout the citrus belt, including Kern County, overnight lows had fallen into the low to mid 30s.
Conditions will be a bit colder tonight and Saturday night as the off shore flow ends and calm conditions return. More on that in the frost discussion below.
In the big picture, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will weaken beginning this afternoon so the Santa Anas will cease by tonight. However, another dry wave of low pressure will race into the Great Basin Saturday night as a surface high jumps up behind it, cranking up the Santa Anas and the off shore flow once again. By Monday, a massive high will stretch from California and off shore waters northward all the way into southern Alaska. This configuration favors very cold air racing southeastward into the Rockies and the Midwest with very stable conditions for California.
By midweek, the northern portion of the high will break down, allowing a weak westerly flow to develop. Theoretically, this should begin to nudge dew points up a bit. Next week will be dry. No surprise there. The two week outlook this morning favors dry conditions continuing, however this model isn’t as adamant about the blocking ridge as previous models. Hopefully by the late part of November, a raindrop or two will fall out of the sky and onto California.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear skies continuing Sunday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/29/72/29/72 | Reedley 71/30/72/30/72 | Dinuba 70/29/71/29/72 | |
| Porterville 74/30/73/29/73 | Lindsay 72/29/72/28/72 | Delano 74/32/73/31/73 | |
| Bakersfield 76/40/74/39/75 | Taft 75/50/74/45/75 | Arvin 77/31/74/31/76 | |
| Lamont 76/38/74/34/75 | Pixley 72/31/73/30/73 | Tulare 71/29/71/28/72 | |
| Woodlake 71/30/72/29/72 | Hanford 73/31/72/30/73 | Orosi 71/30/72/29/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 34/73 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 36/74 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 37/73 |
Friday
Mostly clear 38/74 |
Two Week Outlook: November 16 through November 22: This model still carries a low chance of precipitation for central California. However, it’s not quite as adamant as the string of previous model runs. The best way to word this is that there will be a low chance of precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: There is still a small chance of locally strong, gusty winds in mainly the south valley this morning with local gusts to near 40 MPH possible near the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere. The remainder of the area will see winds of generally less than 7 MPH with extensive periods of near calm conditions through Monday. There is also a slight chance of locally gusty Santa Ana winds Sunday and Sunday night near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains as a similar configuration sets up.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: The drier air mass that we’ve been discussing recently certainly manifested itself last night. As of 6:00am, all locations in the citrus belt, even in Kern County, were in the low to mid 30s. widespread frost appears likely tonight and tomorrow night as there is an excellent chance of dewpoints lowering even more. The very coldest wind protected river bottom and like locations could briefly hit 27 to 28 degrees with generally flat terrain type locations ranging from 29 to 35, depending on wind conditions, topography, etc. most hillside locations will remain above freezing.
In locations where wind machines are used, temperatures should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer at 34 feet. Expect similar conditions Sunday morning.
Colder locations Monday and Tuesday will be at or slightly below freezing with most other locations ranging in the 30s.
A weak westerly flow will arrive Wednesday which should nudge up dew points somewhat for above freezing conditions. However, now that the dry air is in place, it will be difficult to get rid of. In all reality, a juicy storm system is what we need.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity November 8, 2018: Delano, 83%/24%, Porterville, 92%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .91, Parlier .70, Blackwell .87, Lindcove .68, Arvin .82, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .71, Delano .72 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 68, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 68/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 69 -108
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 60.1 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.79 Month to Date: .00 -.26
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.45. Month to Date: .00 -.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 7, Parlier, 26 , Arvin, 9 Shafter, 34 Stratford, 15, Lindcove, 4 Delano 19, Porterville, 43 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:21
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1515 / 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1542 / 66 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 103 0.15 12 1.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.13 13 1.00 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 13 1.18 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 7 1.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 11 0.10 11 0.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 5 0.06 7 0.87 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.45 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 95 0.00 0 0.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 77 0.21 24 0.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 24 0.89 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 39 0.04 4 0.90 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 9/pm