Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Dew points are all over the place, ranging from the mid 20s to near 40. More on that in the frost discussion below. A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure is building from south to north into the Pacific Northwest with the northern rim of this high eventually reaching southern Alaska and the Yukon Territory of northwest Canada.
In the meantime, a rapidly moving low pressure system is moving through the northern and central Rockies with its western flank into eastern Nevada. These two factors will again set the stage for a north/south flow aloft. As the low over the Rockies moves eastward, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will follow. This will crank up the Santa Ana wind machine again by Sunday afternoon. It will peak Sunday night and Monday morning. Dew points over the Kern County mountains are still near 0 at many locations and will only move lower as the high winds develop. Also, we’re going to have to watch for wind conditions in the south valley. It’s always somewhat of a roll of the dice with these winds but certainly the chance exists for gusty, southeast winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor later Sunday afternoon through Monday.
If these winds do make it down, gusts of more than 40 to 50 MPH are possible right where the Tehachapi Mountains meet the valley floor. How far to the northwest these winds progress is tough to determine, but Bakersfield cannot be ruled out. Winds will wind down by Monday evening with light winds returning over the entire region Tuesday and beyond.
A weak westerly flow will develop by midweek as the northern portion of the high breaks down. Even a weak low could develop off shore by Friday. No chance of precipitation is foreseen at this time. The two week model out this afternoon is a bit more encouraging as it indicates there’s an equal chance of precipitation. This is the first time in a month we’ve seen this swing in the pendulum.
Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Wednesday. Generally clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/72/32/73 | Reedley 33/70/34/73 | Dinuba 31/70/33/72 | |
| Porterville 33/73/34/73 | Lindsay 31/72/32/72 | Delano 34/73/34/72 | |
| Bakersfield 39/74/39/75 | Arvin 35/74/35/74 | Taft 45/73/44/74 | |
| Lamont 37/74/39/74 | Pixley 32/73/33/74 | Tulare 31/71/32/72 | |
| Woodlake 32/72/33/72 | Hanford 32/72/33/73 | Orosi 31/71/33/72 | |
Winds: A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure is building from south to north into the Pacific Northwest with the northern rim of this high eventually reaching southern Alaska and the Yukon Territory of northwest Canada.
In the meantime, a rapidly moving low pressure system is moving through the northern and central Rockies with its western flank into eastern Nevada. These two factors will again set the stage for a north/south flow aloft. As the low over the Rockies moves eastward, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will follow. This will crank up the Santa Ana wind machine again by Sunday afternoon. It will peak Sunday night and Monday morning. Dew points over the Kern County mountains are still near 0 at many locations and will only move lower as the high winds develop. Also, we’re going to have to watch for wind conditions in the south valley. It’s always somewhat of a roll of the dice with these winds but certainly the chance exists for gusty, southeast winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor later Sunday afternoon through Monday.
If these winds do make it down, gusts of more than 40 to 50 MPH are possible right where the Tehachapi Mountains meet the valley floor. How far to the northwest these winds progress is tough to determine, but Bakersfield cannot be ruled out. Winds will wind down by Monday evening with light winds returning over the entire region Tuesday and beyond.
A weak westerly flow will develop by midweek as the northern portion of the high breaks down. During this time frame, winds north of the Tulare/Kern County line will be at or below 7 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Information: Temperatures as of 2:00pm were generally averaging in the mid to upper 60s, which is four or more degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Dew points don’t make any rhyme or reason this afternoon, ranging from the mid 20s to near 40. Readings tonight should be a degree or two milder than last night, even though daytime temperatures are not as warm. Like last night, most locations will fall into the low to mid 30s with river bottom and like locations possibly dipping into the 29 to 31 degree range for short durations. Hillsides will again be above freezing.
The weather pattern will become more interesting again beginning Sunday as a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure builds far to the north into Alaska and northwest Canada, generating a north to south flow. At the surface, high pressure will again rapidly develop over the Great Basin Sunday through Monday, spreading cooler and very dry air over the mountain and desert regions. I’ll toss the dice again and predict the possibility of some of these winds blowing downslope into the valley portion of Kern County. That is when daytime temperatures will rise sharply, but on the flipside, overnight lows dip equally as fast.
From the Kern/Tulare County line northward, it’s a matter of dry air mixing into the scenario with weak drainage winds off the Sierra Nevada.
Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings will depend on how much dry air moves down to the surface. If dew points do fall, then overnight lows could cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. for now, we’ll just have to look at the various local effects out there and see how they set up tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday and look for temperature solutions from there. By Wednesday, a weak westerly flow may inject more moisture down to the surface, nudging dew points up some.
Longer term, I do not see any particularly dangerous weather patterns on the horizon, although models are all over the place after the 17th, so we’ll just have to watch as we go.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
33 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31` |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Sunday morning/November 11